Yankees on the 2020 Modern Baseball Era HoF Ballot
Last month the Baseball Hall of Fame released their 2020 Modern Baseball Era ballot. The 10-man group includes three players that spent all, or at least a significant portion, of their careers with the Yankees. Tommy John, Don Mattingly, and Thurman Munson have all had their Hall of Fame candidacies thoroughly debated the conventional way by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). They each spent the maximum of 15 years on the writers' ballot without getting particularly close to the 75% of the vote required for election.
Now, these three former Yanks will have their cases re-opened and examined by a special 16-member committee comprised of current Hall of Famers, MLB executives, and media members. If at least 12 of the committee members give the thumbs up on any player, they will be enshrined in Cooperstown next summer.
Here we'll take a close look at the Hall of Fame resumé for each player to gauge their chances of election. To help give perspective, the JAWS (Jaffe Average WAR Score, developed by Jay Jaffe) value for the player is given in addition to the the average Hall of Famer's JAWS at the player's position. JAWS is a Hall of Fame rating system based on WAR that incorporates both career and peak value. If you're interested in learning more about this, click here.
It was quite a run for Munson, one that only a handful of catchers in major league history have exceeded, but it ended suddenly and tragically. In an effort to see his family more often he died in a private plane crash in 1979 which devastated the baseball world and complicated his case for the Hall of Fame. As the narrative typically goes, if he had been able to finish out his career, he would be a slam dunk candidate for Cooperstown.
However, a closer look at where Munson's career was trending tells a different story. As a full-time catcher, his body was wearing down due to nagging injuries at the time of his death. His value was also mainly tied to hitting for a high average and quality play behind the plate, skills that tend to deteriorate more rapidly than hitting for power or drawing walks. Per the table below, his production was plummeting, especially with the bat, each year over the last five of his career.
Had Munson continued to play through injury after 1979, it likely would have hurt his Hall of Fame chances more than helped them (see Mattingly, Don above). Further complicating Munson's case is the fact that he was a contemporary of four other all-time great catchers including three Hall of Famers in Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter. The other is Ted Simmons, who is also Hall-worthy and is actually on the Modern Era ballot with Munson this year.
Among this crowded bunch, Munson got lost in the shuffle, as evidenced by the lukewarm reception he received from the BBWAA during his 15 years on the ballot. After collecting 15.1% of the votes in 1981, he never exceeded a 10% share in any year thereafter. Yet this doesn't give Munson's career the justice it deserves. Being born around the same time as other elite catchers is no crime, but he's serving the punishment.
While Munson's career WAR total is well short of he Hall of Fame standard for catchers for obvious reasons, his JAWS is within striking distance of the average enshrined catcher. Breaking it down further, the extended peak that Munson enjoyed as a catcher is particularly impressive. As part of the JAWS calculation, a player's top seven seasons in terms of WAR are taken into account as the players peak. For Munson, his peak total of 37.0 ranks eighth all-time among catchers and exceeds the peak marks of 10 catchers currently with a plaque in Cooperstown, including Bill Dickey and Mickey Cochrane. That's a significant achievement.
When you add in that Munson was a supremely effective and respected leader and had the championship hardware to prove it, it becomes clear that he's a Hall of Famer. Of the three Yankees on the Modern Era ballot he's the most worthy of a call to the Hall, but it will be interesting to see if the committee feels the same way.
All statistics reported here were obtained from Baseball Reference.
Now, these three former Yanks will have their cases re-opened and examined by a special 16-member committee comprised of current Hall of Famers, MLB executives, and media members. If at least 12 of the committee members give the thumbs up on any player, they will be enshrined in Cooperstown next summer.
Here we'll take a close look at the Hall of Fame resumé for each player to gauge their chances of election. To help give perspective, the JAWS (Jaffe Average WAR Score, developed by Jay Jaffe) value for the player is given in addition to the the average Hall of Famer's JAWS at the player's position. JAWS is a Hall of Fame rating system based on WAR that incorporates both career and peak value. If you're interested in learning more about this, click here.
Tommy John - Pitcher, JAWS: 48.0, HoF JAWS: 61.5
Nolan Ryan is one of just two pitchers in Major League history to pitch when he was as young as 20 years old and again when he was as old as 46. By now you can guess who the other guy is, but that's where the comparisons with Nolan Ryan end for Tommy John. Relying on impeccable control and a quality curve ball from his southpaw delivery, John outlasted hitters more than overpowered them and rode his trademark resilience to a remarkable 27 year career.
For the first nine years of his career John pitched mostly for the White Sox where he was a reliable starter. Despite showing flashes of brilliance - he led the major leagues in shutouts in 1966 and 1967 - he toiled for a middling team until a fortuitous trade for slugger Dick Allen landed him with the Dodgers in 1971. He continued to pitch well for the perennial contenders until a freak injury in 1974.
In a mid-season tilt with the Montreal Expos John felt a pop in his left arm just before releasing a pitch that left it feeling dead and unable to get the ball over the plate. After a month of rest showed no improvement, ligament damage in the elbow was strongly suspected and surgery became the only option. Historically, this had been a career death sentence for a pitcher, but the 31-year old John trusted his team surgeon, Dr. Frank Jobe.
When Jobe opened up John's arm, he discovered that the ulnar collateral ligament was worn down beyond repair. He then got creative and constructed a replacement ligament by grafting one from a tendon in John's right (non-throwing) wrist. The radical procedure left John's arm in rough shape as he embarked on an indeterminate recovery period, not knowing if he would ever be able to pitch again.
John sat out the entire 1975 season while he arduously rehabbed the elbow. In 1976 the hard work paid off and he proved Dr. Jobe's procedure to be a resounding success. For the next five seasons John surpassed 200 innings pitched each year, the longest streak of his career. He would also win at least 20 games and finish in the top five of the Cy Young vote three times each, the only such seasons of his long career.
Perhaps most satisfying for John was that he got his first taste of World Series action in this period as well. In 1977 and 1978 he made three starts for the Dodgers in the Fall Classic against the Yankees, both of them losing efforts for his team. In 1979 he decided that if he couldn't beat them, he would join them and signed as a free agent with New York. There he pitched in another World Series in 1981 where the Yankees lost to the team John had left just two years prior. Despite the lack of team success, John pitched well when called upon in October, going 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA in six World Series games.
For the first nine years of his career John pitched mostly for the White Sox where he was a reliable starter. Despite showing flashes of brilliance - he led the major leagues in shutouts in 1966 and 1967 - he toiled for a middling team until a fortuitous trade for slugger Dick Allen landed him with the Dodgers in 1971. He continued to pitch well for the perennial contenders until a freak injury in 1974.
In a mid-season tilt with the Montreal Expos John felt a pop in his left arm just before releasing a pitch that left it feeling dead and unable to get the ball over the plate. After a month of rest showed no improvement, ligament damage in the elbow was strongly suspected and surgery became the only option. Historically, this had been a career death sentence for a pitcher, but the 31-year old John trusted his team surgeon, Dr. Frank Jobe.
When Jobe opened up John's arm, he discovered that the ulnar collateral ligament was worn down beyond repair. He then got creative and constructed a replacement ligament by grafting one from a tendon in John's right (non-throwing) wrist. The radical procedure left John's arm in rough shape as he embarked on an indeterminate recovery period, not knowing if he would ever be able to pitch again.
John sat out the entire 1975 season while he arduously rehabbed the elbow. In 1976 the hard work paid off and he proved Dr. Jobe's procedure to be a resounding success. For the next five seasons John surpassed 200 innings pitched each year, the longest streak of his career. He would also win at least 20 games and finish in the top five of the Cy Young vote three times each, the only such seasons of his long career.
Perhaps most satisfying for John was that he got his first taste of World Series action in this period as well. In 1977 and 1978 he made three starts for the Dodgers in the Fall Classic against the Yankees, both of them losing efforts for his team. In 1979 he decided that if he couldn't beat them, he would join them and signed as a free agent with New York. There he pitched in another World Series in 1981 where the Yankees lost to the team John had left just two years prior. Despite the lack of team success, John pitched well when called upon in October, going 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA in six World Series games.
Tommy John changed baseball forever with the surgery that now bears his name.
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After that 1981 season, John went firmly into decline mode as he pitched well into his 40's. He pitched a few seasons for the Angels and A's before returning to the Yankees at the ripe age of 43. During these years he was a back of the rotation starter as his stuff and already modest strikeout totals dwindled.
Putting his career in perspective, Tommy John is the definition of a borderline Hall of Famer. He was never a dominant player, posting a career high WAR of just 5.6 in 1968, so his value is in the fact that he was an effective pitcher over a long period of time. Even at that, his career WAR total of 61.5 is more than 10 wins shy of the average Hall of Fame pitcher and his 48.0 JAWS looks worse as it sits over 13 wins shy of the Hall standard.
From a traditional standpoint, John's career 3.34 ERA puts him in a better light. Furthermore, he hung on long enough to come tantalizingly close to a golden number for Hall of Famers with 288 career victories to his name. Despite that impressive total, during John's 15 years on the BBWAA ballot he consistently garnered between just 20% and 30% of the vote, topping out at 31.7% in 2009, his last year of eligibility. These results suggest that he was worthy of serious consideration, but not quite great enough to reach the promised land, which sounds about right.
If John is to gain election via this special committee, the x-factor will be the revolutionary surgery he underwent that saved his career, and the careers of hundreds of other pitchers thereafter. His willingness to undergo the procedure, and dedication in re-habbing it fully for over a year without knowing if it would be even remotely effective is truly remarkable. What's more, he was able to return to being a successful pitcher for a staggering 14 years post-surgery, giving hope to all future pitchers suffering a similar injury. Regardless of the election result, Tommy John's name will always be famous in the baseball corner of the world, and rightfully so.
From a traditional standpoint, John's career 3.34 ERA puts him in a better light. Furthermore, he hung on long enough to come tantalizingly close to a golden number for Hall of Famers with 288 career victories to his name. Despite that impressive total, during John's 15 years on the BBWAA ballot he consistently garnered between just 20% and 30% of the vote, topping out at 31.7% in 2009, his last year of eligibility. These results suggest that he was worthy of serious consideration, but not quite great enough to reach the promised land, which sounds about right.
If John is to gain election via this special committee, the x-factor will be the revolutionary surgery he underwent that saved his career, and the careers of hundreds of other pitchers thereafter. His willingness to undergo the procedure, and dedication in re-habbing it fully for over a year without knowing if it would be even remotely effective is truly remarkable. What's more, he was able to return to being a successful pitcher for a staggering 14 years post-surgery, giving hope to all future pitchers suffering a similar injury. Regardless of the election result, Tommy John's name will always be famous in the baseball corner of the world, and rightfully so.
Don Mattingly - 1B, JAWS: 39.1, HoF JAWS: 54.8
As my reserve first baseman in The New York Yankees All-Time All-Stars, a full profile on the career of Donnie Baseball can be found there. Here, we'll focus solely on his Hall of Fame case and where it stands heading into this weekend's election.
From about mid-way through the 1984 season until right around 1989, Don Mattingly was widely considered to be on the short list of players who could stake a claim to being the best in Major League Baseball. There are plenty of players currently in the Hall of Fame who were never a part of that conversation even for a single season, let alone six in a row. As such, Mattingly's case for Cooperstown begins, but also sadly ends, with this fact.
During that six-year sprint, Mattingly made six All-Star Game appearances, took home an AL batting title, was named the AL MVP and finished in the top seven three other times. He also led the majors in doubles for three straight years, tied the record for consecutive games with a home run, and set the record for most grand slams in a season. His ability to control the strike zone while hitting for a high average with a significant amount of power drew comparisons to Stan Musial, a baseball god and first ballot Hall of Famer. To top it off, Mattingly was as slick as they come at first base and earned five Gold Gloves during this period. His eventual enshrinement alongside Musial seemed to be a foregone conclusion.
From about mid-way through the 1984 season until right around 1989, Don Mattingly was widely considered to be on the short list of players who could stake a claim to being the best in Major League Baseball. There are plenty of players currently in the Hall of Fame who were never a part of that conversation even for a single season, let alone six in a row. As such, Mattingly's case for Cooperstown begins, but also sadly ends, with this fact.
During that six-year sprint, Mattingly made six All-Star Game appearances, took home an AL batting title, was named the AL MVP and finished in the top seven three other times. He also led the majors in doubles for three straight years, tied the record for consecutive games with a home run, and set the record for most grand slams in a season. His ability to control the strike zone while hitting for a high average with a significant amount of power drew comparisons to Stan Musial, a baseball god and first ballot Hall of Famer. To top it off, Mattingly was as slick as they come at first base and earned five Gold Gloves during this period. His eventual enshrinement alongside Musial seemed to be a foregone conclusion.
In the mid-1980's Don Mattingly was one of baseball's true superstars.
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Had Mattingly stayed at a superstar level another year or two and mixed in a couple of above average seasons before his decline, he likely would have been voted into the Hall by the BBWAA. In reality, he never garnered more than the 28.2% of the vote that he received in his first year of eligibility. His share of the vote then steadily declined over the 15 years he stayed on the ballot, finishing with just 9.1% in 2015.
That all came to a screeching halt in 1990 when chronic back injuries Mattingly had developed a few years prior worsened and forced him to the disabled list for a significant portion of the season. When he did return to the lineup he no longer had the ability to hit the ball with the same authority that he did pre-injury. Unfortunately that would remain true over the final six seasons of his career. Still a serviceable hitter, the masher who feasted on major league pitching returned only in brief spurts over this time.
All was not lost for Mattingly during these lean years. He earned another four straight Gold Gloves and admirably served as Yankee captain from 1991 through 1995 while the team slowly worked its way back to respectability. In his final season he also got his first taste of playoff baseball. He played like a man determined to will his team to victory, hitting .417 with a home run and six RBI's in a thrilling series against the Mariners. Alas, the Yankees came up just short for their captain who retired at just 34 years old.
Being merely an average first baseman for the final half of Mattingly's relatively brief career did virtually nothing for his case as a Hall of Famer (see table below for how steep his decline was in terms of WAR). His 42.4 career WAR falls well short of the 66.8 average WAR of enshrined first baseman. While his impressive peak helps close that gap when it comes to JAWS, he's still well below the standard at first base in that respect.
Had Mattingly stayed at a superstar level another year or two and mixed in a couple of above average seasons before his decline, he likely would have been voted into the Hall by the BBWAA. In reality, he never garnered more than the 28.2% of the vote that he received in his first year of eligibility. His share of the vote then steadily declined over the 15 years he stayed on the ballot, finishing with just 9.1% in 2015.
If Harold Baines' induction last year is any indication - and this is no knock on Baines - it's clear that having sub-par Hall of Fame credentials that were confirmed by the BBWAA means very little when it comes to these special elections. As it is, should Donnie Baseball get voted in he would be far from the worst player in the Hall of Fame. And in this fan's humble opinion, Cooperstown would be a better place for it.
Thurman Munson - C, JAWS: 41.5, HoF JAWS: 44.7
Just as I did with Don Mattingly, Thurman Munson was profiled in The New York Yankees All-Time All-Stars as a reserve catcher. So we'll look at his career here strictly from a Hall of Fame standpoint.
From the moment he stormed on the scene as the AL Rookie of the Year in 1970, Thurman Munson proved himself to be an elite catcher. Over the nine full seasons he played in the major leagues he was a perennial All-Star, hit over .300 five times, and was named the AL MVP in 1976. On top of that he earned three consecutive Gold Gloves in the mid-1970's and served as the tough-as-nails, no-nonsense captain of some historically crazy Yankee teams that won three straight AL pennants and two World Series from 1976 through 1978.
From the moment he stormed on the scene as the AL Rookie of the Year in 1970, Thurman Munson proved himself to be an elite catcher. Over the nine full seasons he played in the major leagues he was a perennial All-Star, hit over .300 five times, and was named the AL MVP in 1976. On top of that he earned three consecutive Gold Gloves in the mid-1970's and served as the tough-as-nails, no-nonsense captain of some historically crazy Yankee teams that won three straight AL pennants and two World Series from 1976 through 1978.
Before sporting his trademark bushy mustache, Thurman Munson was a fresh-faced rookie.
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It was quite a run for Munson, one that only a handful of catchers in major league history have exceeded, but it ended suddenly and tragically. In an effort to see his family more often he died in a private plane crash in 1979 which devastated the baseball world and complicated his case for the Hall of Fame. As the narrative typically goes, if he had been able to finish out his career, he would be a slam dunk candidate for Cooperstown.
However, a closer look at where Munson's career was trending tells a different story. As a full-time catcher, his body was wearing down due to nagging injuries at the time of his death. His value was also mainly tied to hitting for a high average and quality play behind the plate, skills that tend to deteriorate more rapidly than hitting for power or drawing walks. Per the table below, his production was plummeting, especially with the bat, each year over the last five of his career.
Had Munson continued to play through injury after 1979, it likely would have hurt his Hall of Fame chances more than helped them (see Mattingly, Don above). Further complicating Munson's case is the fact that he was a contemporary of four other all-time great catchers including three Hall of Famers in Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter. The other is Ted Simmons, who is also Hall-worthy and is actually on the Modern Era ballot with Munson this year.
Among this crowded bunch, Munson got lost in the shuffle, as evidenced by the lukewarm reception he received from the BBWAA during his 15 years on the ballot. After collecting 15.1% of the votes in 1981, he never exceeded a 10% share in any year thereafter. Yet this doesn't give Munson's career the justice it deserves. Being born around the same time as other elite catchers is no crime, but he's serving the punishment.
While Munson's career WAR total is well short of he Hall of Fame standard for catchers for obvious reasons, his JAWS is within striking distance of the average enshrined catcher. Breaking it down further, the extended peak that Munson enjoyed as a catcher is particularly impressive. As part of the JAWS calculation, a player's top seven seasons in terms of WAR are taken into account as the players peak. For Munson, his peak total of 37.0 ranks eighth all-time among catchers and exceeds the peak marks of 10 catchers currently with a plaque in Cooperstown, including Bill Dickey and Mickey Cochrane. That's a significant achievement.
When you add in that Munson was a supremely effective and respected leader and had the championship hardware to prove it, it becomes clear that he's a Hall of Famer. Of the three Yankees on the Modern Era ballot he's the most worthy of a call to the Hall, but it will be interesting to see if the committee feels the same way.
All statistics reported here were obtained from Baseball Reference.
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