Thoughts on the Yankees Heading Into 2020: Vol. 2
A spring without baseball. It's as strange as it sounds. But in these surreal times, the rash of injuries the Yankees are dealing with suddenly seems very unimportant. Hope you're all as happy and healthy as you can be. In the meantime, here's some more food for thought on the 2020 Yankees, if we ever get to see them in action.
State of the Infield
A year ago, Greg Bird, Miguel Andujar, and Didi Gregorius were looked at to be major contributors across the Yankee infield in their quest for another championship. Unfortunately, injuries took their toll on all three. Only Gregorius was able to take the field with any consistency, but his bat was not up to par. The good news was that the Yankee infield was still extremely productive thanks to some pleasant surprises. Here's how it shook out.
A seemingly underwhelming free agent acquisition before the season, LeMahieu turned out to be a legitimate MVP candidate. His ability to hold down the top of the batting order and play three infield positions with equal brilliance was the saving grace of the Yankees' season. He's firmly entrenched as the everyday second baseman, but to expect a repeat performance in 2020 would be a risky endeavor. Last season was only the second of his 9-year career with an OPS+ that was above average.
The biggest surprise for the Yankees in 2019 was the emergence of Gio Urshela. Once Andujar went down with a labrum injury, the journeyman stumbled into the everyday third base job and exceeded all reasonable expectations. The career .225 hitter slashed .314/.354/.534 with 21 home runs and effectively pushed Andujar to the outfield for 2020.
On the other corner of the infield, Mike Ford was also a revelation at first base when Bird and Luke Voit missed time due to injury. After toiling in the Yankees' minor league system for six years the Princeton grad posted an impressive 137 OPS+ in 50 big league games thanks to a keen batting eye and powerful lefty stroke. Of the LeMahieu/Urshela/Ford gold mine the Yankees discovered last year, Ford has the best shot at sustaining that success in 2020 as a platoon player. Bottom line, the Yankees will need significant production elsewhere to stave off the inevitable regression of these guys.
That should come in the form of Gleyber Torres and a fully healthy Voit. You can make the argument that Torres is the most important player on the Yankees' roster and the key to the future. In 2019 he held down both second base and shortstop depending on team need and smashed 38 home runs in the middle of the lineup. At just 23 years old he's still getting better and is locked in at shortstop with Gregorius moving to Philadelphia.
Like his counterpart Mike Ford, Luke Voit has displayed the makings of a classic slugger in his brief tenure in the Bronx. The big, tough righty - whose pythons rival Hulk Hogan's - has a knack for patience and power with the bat. In the second half of 2019 he mostly played through a significant abdominal injury and was left off the playoff roster as a result. Despite playing at less than 100%, he still hit more than 20 home runs and led the team with 71 walks. Off-season surgery has his health back on track and the still-in-his-prime first baseman has "breakout year" written all over him.
Filling in again as utility infielders should be a freshly swole Tyler Wade and the up-and-coming Thairo Estrada. Both are Yankee lifers who have been with the organization since 2013 and are looking to make noise in the big leagues this year.
The infield should again be a team strength in 2020, just don't be surprised if DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela fall out of orbit and back to earth. Even if they falter, the next diamond in the rough is never too far away from Brian Cashman.
A seemingly underwhelming free agent acquisition before the season, LeMahieu turned out to be a legitimate MVP candidate. His ability to hold down the top of the batting order and play three infield positions with equal brilliance was the saving grace of the Yankees' season. He's firmly entrenched as the everyday second baseman, but to expect a repeat performance in 2020 would be a risky endeavor. Last season was only the second of his 9-year career with an OPS+ that was above average.
The biggest surprise for the Yankees in 2019 was the emergence of Gio Urshela. Once Andujar went down with a labrum injury, the journeyman stumbled into the everyday third base job and exceeded all reasonable expectations. The career .225 hitter slashed .314/.354/.534 with 21 home runs and effectively pushed Andujar to the outfield for 2020.
On the other corner of the infield, Mike Ford was also a revelation at first base when Bird and Luke Voit missed time due to injury. After toiling in the Yankees' minor league system for six years the Princeton grad posted an impressive 137 OPS+ in 50 big league games thanks to a keen batting eye and powerful lefty stroke. Of the LeMahieu/Urshela/Ford gold mine the Yankees discovered last year, Ford has the best shot at sustaining that success in 2020 as a platoon player. Bottom line, the Yankees will need significant production elsewhere to stave off the inevitable regression of these guys.
That should come in the form of Gleyber Torres and a fully healthy Voit. You can make the argument that Torres is the most important player on the Yankees' roster and the key to the future. In 2019 he held down both second base and shortstop depending on team need and smashed 38 home runs in the middle of the lineup. At just 23 years old he's still getting better and is locked in at shortstop with Gregorius moving to Philadelphia.
Gleyber Torres is ready to follow in Derek Jeter's footsteps.
Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons
Like his counterpart Mike Ford, Luke Voit has displayed the makings of a classic slugger in his brief tenure in the Bronx. The big, tough righty - whose pythons rival Hulk Hogan's - has a knack for patience and power with the bat. In the second half of 2019 he mostly played through a significant abdominal injury and was left off the playoff roster as a result. Despite playing at less than 100%, he still hit more than 20 home runs and led the team with 71 walks. Off-season surgery has his health back on track and the still-in-his-prime first baseman has "breakout year" written all over him.
Filling in again as utility infielders should be a freshly swole Tyler Wade and the up-and-coming Thairo Estrada. Both are Yankee lifers who have been with the organization since 2013 and are looking to make noise in the big leagues this year.
The infield should again be a team strength in 2020, just don't be surprised if DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela fall out of orbit and back to earth. Even if they falter, the next diamond in the rough is never too far away from Brian Cashman.
Out with Larry Rothschild, in with Matt Blake
When Larry Rothschild was hired as the Yankees' pitching coach in 2011, he brought with him over 20 years of experience coaching in the big leagues. That included a successful run as the pitching coach for the Cincinnati Reds in the late 80's/early 90's and a disastrous stint as the inaugural manager for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Having seen a thing or two in his career, Rothschild carefully navigated a veteran-rich Yankee pitching staff to the third best ERA in the league during his first year on the job.
Over the next eight seasons, Rothschild helped keep the Yankee team ERA in the top half of the major leagues every year despite a constantly changing cast of characters. Funny thing is, he accomplished this by embracing analytics more as he got older rather than the other way around. The top two lines of the graph below show that under Rothschild's watch, the Yankees were at the forefront of the strike out revolution by decreasing fastball usage in order to increase strike out rate. This was no doubt a result of the Yankees' growing analytics department getting in Rothschild's ear. To his credit, he took the information and ran instead of relying on conventional wisdom.
Rothschild's willingness to think outside the box wasn't the only thing that made him successful though. The psychological state of a pitcher can be a delicate thing, especially during stretches when they might not have their best stuff. In those moments, an experienced pitching coach can be worth his weight in gold. As James Paxton told The Athletic last year on the topic of Rothschild, "…when he is talking to you, he is present and attentive and not distracted…He’s really good at listening, very good at giving ideas...But he also allows each guy to be himself. He understands everyone is different and everyone gets it done in a different way." That's a delicate touch that analytics simply can't help.
Heading into 2020, the Yankees have moved on from Rothschild and with him may have gone that delicate touch. New pitching coach Matt Blake's big league experience includes being a scout for the Yankees in 2010 before joining the Cleveland Indians as a pitching coordinator and eventually director of pitching development in 2016. His only experience as a pitching coach was for one season at a high school in Massachusetts in 2009 and one season in the Cape Cod League in 2015. Handling a major league pitching staff day-to-day is not exactly something he can claim any expertise in.
When it comes to analytics, Blake comes highly recommended, which should come as no surprise to anyone following the Yankees' recent hiring history. In the days after he was announced as the new pitching coach he spoke about using tools, tech, and data to help develop a plan that fits each individual pitcher's situation. That was no doubt music to Brian Cashman's ears and sounds like a pretty sound strategy overall.
Pitchers that have worked with Blake have also had good thing to say about him. Former Indians star pitcher Trevor Bauer praised Blake's baseball smarts and communication skills after his move to the Yankees. Gerrit Cole spoke with Blake during his visit as a free agent and came away satisfied, despite his inexperience.
Still, one can't help but think the Yankees may be taking a step back here at pitching coach. Matt Blake is a risky hire, but then again so was Aaron Boone and he has enjoyed back-to-back 100-win seasons as a brand new manager. Don't be surprised, though, if Blake encounters some bumps in the road throughout the 2020 season.
Over the next eight seasons, Rothschild helped keep the Yankee team ERA in the top half of the major leagues every year despite a constantly changing cast of characters. Funny thing is, he accomplished this by embracing analytics more as he got older rather than the other way around. The top two lines of the graph below show that under Rothschild's watch, the Yankees were at the forefront of the strike out revolution by decreasing fastball usage in order to increase strike out rate. This was no doubt a result of the Yankees' growing analytics department getting in Rothschild's ear. To his credit, he took the information and ran instead of relying on conventional wisdom.
Rothschild's willingness to think outside the box wasn't the only thing that made him successful though. The psychological state of a pitcher can be a delicate thing, especially during stretches when they might not have their best stuff. In those moments, an experienced pitching coach can be worth his weight in gold. As James Paxton told The Athletic last year on the topic of Rothschild, "…when he is talking to you, he is present and attentive and not distracted…He’s really good at listening, very good at giving ideas...But he also allows each guy to be himself. He understands everyone is different and everyone gets it done in a different way." That's a delicate touch that analytics simply can't help.
Larry Rothschild will no longer be mentoring Yankee hurlers on the mound this season.
Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons
Heading into 2020, the Yankees have moved on from Rothschild and with him may have gone that delicate touch. New pitching coach Matt Blake's big league experience includes being a scout for the Yankees in 2010 before joining the Cleveland Indians as a pitching coordinator and eventually director of pitching development in 2016. His only experience as a pitching coach was for one season at a high school in Massachusetts in 2009 and one season in the Cape Cod League in 2015. Handling a major league pitching staff day-to-day is not exactly something he can claim any expertise in.
When it comes to analytics, Blake comes highly recommended, which should come as no surprise to anyone following the Yankees' recent hiring history. In the days after he was announced as the new pitching coach he spoke about using tools, tech, and data to help develop a plan that fits each individual pitcher's situation. That was no doubt music to Brian Cashman's ears and sounds like a pretty sound strategy overall.
Pitchers that have worked with Blake have also had good thing to say about him. Former Indians star pitcher Trevor Bauer praised Blake's baseball smarts and communication skills after his move to the Yankees. Gerrit Cole spoke with Blake during his visit as a free agent and came away satisfied, despite his inexperience.
Still, one can't help but think the Yankees may be taking a step back here at pitching coach. Matt Blake is a risky hire, but then again so was Aaron Boone and he has enjoyed back-to-back 100-win seasons as a brand new manager. Don't be surprised, though, if Blake encounters some bumps in the road throughout the 2020 season.
State of the Outfield (not The Outfield, which hasn't hit the charts since the early 90's)
Just as we did with the infield, let's look ahead by first looking back at the Yankee outfield in 2019.
There are no surprises in the top two entries of that list. For more on Brett Gardner, you can check out the first installment of these offseason thoughts. As for Aaron Judge, when he was healthy his power bat and superb glove/arm in right field were as productive as one could expect. The only question for the soon-to-be 28-year old in 2020 is that health.
Before spring training even got into full swing, Judge went down with a fractured rib that still has no real time table for recovery. The team also just decided to let everyone know that he suffered a collapsed lung as part of that injury. That seems to be fine for now, although it doesn't inspire a warm, fuzzy feeling. After missing significant time in 2018 and 2019, it would be nice to see Judge play for all or most of whatever abbreviated season will fit into 2020. We'll see.
The most pleasant surprise in last year's outfield was Mike Tauchman, the latest in a long string of under the radar acquisitions that have worked out quite well for Brian Cashman. Despite his limited big league experience, he played like a polished veteran when plugged into the lineup. If the season started on time, he would be the starting right fielder. While there's no guarantee he'll thrive in an everyday role, based on this excellent article at The Athletic, I'm not betting against him.
Also lined up to benefit from the rash of injuries in the Yankee outfield is Clint Frazier. In his brief career he has proven that he can hold his own at the plate in the major leagues, but has been borderline unplayable with the glove in the corner outfield spots. A guarantee of significant playing time in left field would do wonders for his confidence, but that will all depend on how soon the season starts and how fast his teammates can recover.
Penciled in as a reserve in the outfield corners will likely be defensively challenged Miguel Andujar, who is looking for a new home in the field to keep his potent bat in the lineup. Former top prospect turned journeyman Cameron Maybin filled this role admirably last year but signed with the Tigers for 2020. That opens it up for Andujar who has been receptive to the idea this spring. Whatever gets him more at bats...
When they get back to full health, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton will be mainstays in the Yankee lineup. Coming back from Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm, Hicks should be the productive, two-way centerfielder the Yankees have come to know when he returns. Stanton on the other hand is fighting the growing reputation that he's a soft player.
After a productive first season in pinstripes in 2018, Stanton missed most of last year because of various strains to his biceps, shoulder, and knee. He didn't do himself any favors when he missed most of the spring due to a calf strain. Fair or not, fans and media members have little patience for $30 million-per-year players who miss significant time due to strains. The sooner he can get healthy and back to playing like the former MVP that he is, the better for Stanton and the Yankees.
Even with all of the injuries, the Yankees have plenty of talent to spread around the outfield. When/if the season gets into full swing, Aaron Boone may have some tough decisions to make when making his outfield assignments each day. That's a good problem to have.
The most pleasant surprise in last year's outfield was Mike Tauchman, the latest in a long string of under the radar acquisitions that have worked out quite well for Brian Cashman. Despite his limited big league experience, he played like a polished veteran when plugged into the lineup. If the season started on time, he would be the starting right fielder. While there's no guarantee he'll thrive in an everyday role, based on this excellent article at The Athletic, I'm not betting against him.
Also lined up to benefit from the rash of injuries in the Yankee outfield is Clint Frazier. In his brief career he has proven that he can hold his own at the plate in the major leagues, but has been borderline unplayable with the glove in the corner outfield spots. A guarantee of significant playing time in left field would do wonders for his confidence, but that will all depend on how soon the season starts and how fast his teammates can recover.
Penciled in as a reserve in the outfield corners will likely be defensively challenged Miguel Andujar, who is looking for a new home in the field to keep his potent bat in the lineup. Former top prospect turned journeyman Cameron Maybin filled this role admirably last year but signed with the Tigers for 2020. That opens it up for Andujar who has been receptive to the idea this spring. Whatever gets him more at bats...
Miguel Andujar will likely take his smooth swing to the outfield in 2020.
Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons
When they get back to full health, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton will be mainstays in the Yankee lineup. Coming back from Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm, Hicks should be the productive, two-way centerfielder the Yankees have come to know when he returns. Stanton on the other hand is fighting the growing reputation that he's a soft player.
After a productive first season in pinstripes in 2018, Stanton missed most of last year because of various strains to his biceps, shoulder, and knee. He didn't do himself any favors when he missed most of the spring due to a calf strain. Fair or not, fans and media members have little patience for $30 million-per-year players who miss significant time due to strains. The sooner he can get healthy and back to playing like the former MVP that he is, the better for Stanton and the Yankees.
Even with all of the injuries, the Yankees have plenty of talent to spread around the outfield. When/if the season gets into full swing, Aaron Boone may have some tough decisions to make when making his outfield assignments each day. That's a good problem to have.
Comments
Post a Comment