Thoughts on the Yankees Heading Into 2021

The highly unusual 2020 baseball season ended with an all too familiar early exit for the Yankees in the AL playoffs. As we turn the page to what should me a more orthodox baseball season in just a couple of months, the Yanks will look to buck that recent trend. But these aren't your father's Yankees, they're not going to spend big this winter to do it. Let's take a look at how the team is looking with pitchers and catchers due in Tampa about two weeks from now.

What, Cash worry?

When the offseason started, Yankees GM Brian Cashman made it clear that the team's priority this winter would be re-signing DJ LeMahieu. That is, no other major deals would be struck until he was assured that DJ was coming back to the Bronx. This seemed a sound strategy considering that he's been the clear cut MVP of the Yankees for each of the past two seasons.

LeMahieu's value to the Yankees really can't be overstated. Since signing a modest two-year, $24 million deal in 2019 he's served as the starting third baseman, second baseman or first baseman depending on team need, and handled each position like a Gold Glover. He's also been the most indispensable bat in the Yankee lineup, despite being surrounded by proven sluggers. He's a master of the lost art of consistently putting the ball in play without making a ton of outs. In 2020 he roped and chopped his way to a major league-leading .364 batting average while also leading the AL in on-base percentage, OPS and OPS+. There's simply no player like LeMahieu in baseball today and he's provided immense value to the Yankees compared to his salary.

Considering that LeMahieu is also as quiet and unflashy as they come, without a hint of ego, one would think that Cashman could have simply given him a blank check to fill in for his next contract. Instead, he was reportedly offered four years and $84 million initially. By all accounts, LeMahieu wanted to stay with the Yankees, but in what is sure to be the last significant contract of his career, he wanted more stability in the form of a fifth year. That's easy, five years for $105 million is the logical conclusion. DJ is happy and finally gets paid like the great player he is, the Yankees lock up their best player, and Cashman can move on to other areas of need for the team. Right?

Wrong. The Yankees played hardball with LeMahieu and spent about two months negotiating terms of the deal. Then despite some dunce opining that they were sitting idle, they agreed on a six-year, $90 million contract. With this approach, Cashman accomplished three things: 1) He caused the usually unflappable LeMahieu to grow frustrated with the organization before the deal was struck, 2) While other teams were very busy this winter, he let two months pass without signing a single major league contract to improve a roster that could use some help, 3) He brought the average annual value of the originally proposed LeMaheiu contract down to $15 million from $21 million. The first two things are bad and were completely unnecessary. The third is good only when it comes to calculating the luxury tax, which the Yankee front office is trying to avoid like the plague this year. In other words, it doesn't matter at all if what you care about is the on-field success of the Yankees.

Brian Cashman's confidence in his team heading into 2021 is admirable, if not terribly convincing.

Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons

What's most interesting about the watch and wait plan with LeMahieu is that Cashman was seemingly fine with it no matter the outcome. Despite it being counter-productive to improving the team and helping only the Yankees' financial bottom line, he either concocted it himself, or ate it up when proposed by those higher than him in the organization. Gone are the days when Cashman and his sound reasoning would stand up to such nonsense, which is a shame.

Just hours after the deal with DJ was announced, Cashman acquired starting pitcher Corey Kluber to bolster a rotation that desperately needs it with Masahiro Tanaka taking his talents back to Japan. This is a deal that looks fantastic....in 2018. That year the two-time Cy Young Award winner was still on top of the baseball world when he won 20 games for the Cleveland Indians. Since then, he's pitched a little over 36 major league innings, fractured his right forearm, and torn a muscle in his right shoulder. He'll also turn 35 this April, making him by far the elder statesman of the rotation.

If you thought that Cashman still had another ace up his sleeve, he did make two subsequent moves to tweak the pitching staff. One for former top prospect of the Pirates Jameson Taillon, who comes cheaper than any free agent on the market and has yet to pitch competitively since his second Tommy John surgery in 2019. The other a clear cost-cutting move as they dumped disappointing reliever Adam Ottavino and his salary on the Red Sox for a player to be named later. The Yankees' accountant is no doubt ecstatic, the rest of us should be underwhelmed.

Even with what's shaping up to be a patchwork pitching staff again, Cashman and the Yankees are keeping last year's formidable lineup mostly intact heading into 2021. They can certainly contend for the AL East crown and have a good shot to at least sneak into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot. Yet there's no denying they could have done a lot more thus far this offseason to increase their chances.

The Yankees are suddenly getting old

In 2017 the Yankees were a team full of promise on the rise but just last year they were among the oldest teams in the league and they're getting older in 2021. Bringing back LeMahieu was absolutely the right move, but he'll turn 33 this summer. Other regulars in the lineup joining him in the over 30 club are Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton. Reserve catcher Kyle Higashioka will be 31 this April, and even Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela will turn 29 this year.

With the addition of Kluber, the majority of options in the Yankees' starting rotation are either over 30 or in their late 20's and attempting to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. In the bullpen the top set-up man and closer will be a pair of 33-year-olds in Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman, with no real young guns to speak of backing them up. In fact, Ottavino was just effectively replaced with 38-year old Darren O'Day. If the Yankees are going to win a World Series with the current group, it's now or never. Most are in the twilight of their prime and that championship window is closing rapidly.

Although it seems like Luke Voit's baseball career is just getting started, he'll turn 30 before Opening Day.

DR. Buddie/Wikimedia Commons

That's not to say the group won't change at all. In recent years, Cashman has proven time and again that he can reinforce the roster with a player acquired for peanuts that can contribute significantly right away. The aforementioned Voit and Urshela as well as Mike Tauchman are mainstays in the lineup now but were considered marginal players before coming to New York. In 2019 scrap heap pick-ups Cameron Maybin and Edwin Encarnacion were key contributors at different points during the season. But banking on moves like this always paying off is not an ideal strategy.

Truth is, the Yankees' organizational depth is looking pretty shallow these days. In the most recently published list of top 100 prospects at mlb.com, just three Yankees were included and you need to scroll down to number 48 to find the first one. Of those three, two are pitchers - Clarke Schmidt and Deivi Garcia - that will likely find themselves serving a significant role on the big league team this year given the age and injury history of the current staff. The other - Jasson Dominguez - is just 17 years old and years away from being ready for major league action. 

It wasn't that long ago that the Yankees had one of the best player pipelines in baseball, but in 2021 there is no top talent to speak of in the higher levels of the system. Fixing this should be one of the top priorities for Cashman and the personnel department this summer.

Are the Baby Bombers actually Baby Busts?

Let's talk more about that 2017 team and all of the young players on it who were ready to take the major leagues by storm. That season was by far the most exciting for the Yankees in recent memory. They surpassed 90 wins for the first time in five years. They won a thrilling Wild Card play-in game over the Minnesota Twins. They went the distance with the 102-win Cleveland Indians in the Division Series and came out on top. They also went the distance with the 101-win Houston Astros in the ALCS, although they couldn't finish off the eventual World Series champs in Game Seven. Still, one look at the roster made the future seem so bright.

Two years after bursting onto the scene with a barrage of home runs in 2015, Greg Bird was still dealing with nagging injuries, but he was just 24 and poised to hold down first base in the Bronx for a good, long while. Another 24-year old, Gary Sanchez, had proven that his assault on pitching the year before was no mirage. Despite missing a month due to injury, he crushed 33 home runs with a very respectable .278 batting average as a full time backstop. No other major league team had a catcher that could produce like that.

Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge was the brightest star on the team. He led the AL in walks, runs scored, and home runs with 52. And these weren't just the ordinary home runs that you see in modern baseball today. Judge hit mammoth blasts with regularity that called to mind the show that Mark McGwire gave baseball in 1998, and with none of the controversy. His personality was often compared to Derek Jeter's and he was quickly becoming the face of baseball.

Also making his debut that year was Clint Frazier, a 22-year old slugger who showed a glimpse of power potential that could rival Judge's. The Yankees were going to have to get creative to find playing time for him on the big league club, but that was a very good problem to have.

After years of shuttling between the minor and major leagues, Clint Frazier should have a regular role with the Yankees in 2021.

Jeffrey Hyde/Wikimedia Commons

On the mound Luis Severino showed that he was capable of being an ace in 2017. In nearly 200 innings pitched he went 14-6 with a sparkling 2.98 ERA and finished third in the Cy Young Award voting. At just 23 years old he seemed poised to head up the Yankee rotation for the foreseeable future. Holding down the middle of the rotation was rookie Jordan Montgomery. The big lefty pitched to a 3.88 ERA - good for a 116 ERA+ - and won nine games while constantly drawing comparisons to a more famous big lefty that the Yankees had been sorely missing.

These Baby Bombers were the darlings of Major League Baseball. They were a likeable bunch, but better yet were also extremely productive and were expected to make the Yankees top contenders in the AL for some time after that successful 2017 run. By now, it's safe to say that they have fallen well short of expectations.

Greg Bird never stopped dealing with foot and ankle injuries after 2017 and disappointed when he did play. The Yankees parted ways with him in 2019 after he hit a dismal .194 over his final three seasons in pinstripes. The struggles of Gary Sanchez have been well documented. Offensively, he hasn't come particularly close to producing at the level he showed in 2017. And when he's not struggling with injuries he's struggling to answer serious questions about his ability to be an everyday catcher. Things got so bad in 2020 that he lost his starting gig for the ALDS against Tampa Bay in favor of Kyle Higashioka.

Since his magical rookie season, Aaron Judge has yet to reach those heights again, but only because he's had to visit the injured list each year. When Judge has taken the field these last three years, he's been every bit the star he established himself as in 2017. If he can stay healthy for a full year, he can still be an MVP candidate. He should also finally have a full-time partner in crime joining him in the outfield this year in Clint Frazier. Down the stretch last year Frazier at last got his chance as an everyday starter in the lineup and thrived in that role. Now a more mature player at 26, his focus on improving his glove has paid off and complements his lethal bat.

After getting serious Cy Young consideration in 2017, Luis Severino had a similarly dominant campaign in 2018. Then shoulder trouble led to elbow trouble which led to Tommy John surgery and now it's been two years since he's been a regular part of the rotation. That will likely continue until his expected mid-summer return and there's no telling what type of pitcher he'll be by then. Speaking of Tommy John surgery, Jordan Montgomery required it just a month into the 2018 season and for that reason has made just 17 starts in the last three years. Ten of those starts happened last year where he pitched to an erratic 5.11 ERA. He'll be a part of the rotation in 2021 in the hopes that he rekindles some of that 2017 magic.

Of the six budding stars on the team four years ago, four have had their careers completely derailed, a fifth has not been able to play a full season, and Clint Frazier is only now getting his first real chance as a big leaguer. Amazingly, the Yankees have remained extremely competitive through this disappointment, winning over 100 games in both 2018 and 2019 and advancing to the Division Series in a modified playoff format last year. Still, Game Seven of the ALCS in 2017 remains the highwater mark in the playoffs for this group and for the Yankees that will always be the only barometer for success. There's still time left for these guys to not go down in Yankee history as a group with huge potential that ultimately went bust. But for now, that's the track they're on.