The Yankees Will Miss Masahiro Tanaka In the Second Half
The calendar has turned to July, which means we're at an unofficial midpoint of the Major League Baseball season. At this point, we still have no idea what to make of this 2021 Yankee team. Every time they seem to turn a corner, they immediately fall on their face.
While the Bombers continue their roller coaster season, all this humble bystander can do is observe and report on how things may fare during the back half of the year. When doing that, one thing becomes abundantly clear. The Yankees will sorely miss an old friend that they let go too soon.
The offense will probably get better
Many have pointed to the Yankee offense as the main culprit for their struggles to date, and they'd be right. As recently as June 23rd, they ranked dead last in the American League in runs scored. The last time they finished dead last was 1990 when Don Mattingly's back injury meant that the only glimmers of hope in the lineup were Roberto Kelly, a 30-year old Jesse Barfield, and a rookie sensation named Kevin Maas.
For a number of reasons, it's safe to say that the 2021 Yankee lineup won't suffer the same fate (as of June 30th they've already jumped three spots to 12th place in the AL). Let's start with the team's OPS value of .720 (as of June 30th), which ranks eighth in the AL. A team's OPS tends to correlate highly with their run totals. For instance, in 2020 the Yankees ranked first in OPS and uncoincidentally scored the most runs in the league. In 2018, their OPS ranked second in the league, as did their run total, etc. So with an OPS that's middle of the pack - and understanding that their hitting with RISP is bound to get better - we can expect the run total to get further out of the basement sooner than later.
What's that you say? The Yankees weren't supposed to be a middle of the pack offense? Didn't I just point out they led the league in runs scored last year? Don't they have pretty much the exact same lineup this year? Yes, all of that is correct! So, what else is going on here?
The Yankee team batting average and slugging percentage of .236 and .397, respectively, don't just fall short of what us fans would generally expect from this lineup. They also fall short of what would be expected based on how they have actually hit the ball thus far.
According to Baseball Savant, the Yankees have hit the ball harder than any team in the majors with a 42.9% hard hit rate. That being the case, Statcast's expected batting average and slugging percentage for the Yankees thus far is .249 and .436, respectively. Given that 52 point jump compared to the actuals, one could make the case that the Yankees are hitting the ball more like a team with a .772 OPS. That would rank third in the AL between the Blue Jays and the Red Sox, who are both in the top three in runs scored. By virtue of regression to the mean alone, the Yankees could be a top five offense the rest of the way.
In news that's likely unsurprising, one of the Yankees suffering most when it comes to actuals versus expected values is DJ LeMahieu. His .273/.377 batting average/slugging percentage are anemic compared to the expected values of .288/.412 that Statcast has computed based on his batted balls. Some better luck for DJ may go long way towards getting the Yankee offense back on track. Especially if it coincides with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge continuing to slug the way they have, Luke Voit filling the black hole in the lineup at first base, and the sudden resurgence of Gary Sanchez. The rate at which we hear awful home run calls from John Sterling will probably increase this summer, and that's a good thing.
The starting pitching will probably get worse
At baseline, the Yankees needed Gerrit Cole to pitch like an ace and that has mostly happened this year, Sunday's start in Boston notwithstanding. Outside of Cole, their 2021 hopes rested on a starting rotation of four pitchers who pitched a grand total of 45 innings last year, and 44 of those innings were from Jordan Montgomery coming off Tommy John surgery.
Amazingly, that quartet remained healthy and productive over the first two months of the season. In April, Yankee starters pitched to a 3.79 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In May they improved to a 3.24 ERA and averaged nearly six innings per start as the Yankees seemed to be righting the ship. The best of the bunch behind Cole was Corey Kluber, who seemed to be enjoying a career renaissance that culminated with a no-hitter on May 19th over the Texas Rangers.
When the calendar turned to June, things started to fall apart. Kluber hasn't had the chance to pitch since May due to a shoulder injury that will keep him out until at least August. Those able to start games put up an ugly 5.33 ERA for the month. Domingo German is regularly getting chased from games before the fifth inning, showing that he hasn't regained his stamina after being suspended all of last season. Jameson Taillon, coming off of arm surgery that forced him to miss all of 2020 as well, has yet to find a groove this season. His start in Philadelphia on June 12th was the low point for a Yankee starter this year. He recorded only a single out before being removed with his team down by four runs already.
The only starting pitcher that held his own in June was Jordan Montgomery, who has reached at least the sixth inning in all of his starts and boasted a 4-1 record. Still, it seems like just a matter of time before all the time he's missed during the past three seasons catches up with him. Even Cole himself is showing signs that he's human as he got rocked by the Red Sox in his last start. Whether or not you believe in the power of sticky stuff, MLB's recent crack down on it won't be doing anything to help Cole regain his superhuman form.
Whether it's injury or ineffectiveness, it's a virtual lock that the Yankees' starting rotation as a whole won't approach the level they were at in May. There's also no young guns poised to step into the rotation and save the day. Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt are the top two arms in the Yankee system and Schmidt has yet to throw a live inning this year due to an arm injury. Garcia has been getting shelled in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, posting a putrid 8.80 ERA across nine starts. He's fared no better in two spot starts for the big league club. The Yankees will need serious help in the starting rotation if they stand any chance this year.
We need a (Masa)hiro
It just so happens that as recently as last year the Yankees employed a reliable starting pitcher who, at 32 years old and still throwing well, would instantly be their number two behind Gerrit Cole. Mind-bogglingly, the team didn't see the value in bringing Masahiro Tanaka back for 2021, even at what would have been a relatively modest price. He ultimately signed a two-year deal for what amounts to about $9 million in Japan after it was clear the Yankees weren't interested. The decision to let Tanaka go seemed not smart in the moment, and even worse in hindsight.
When the Yankees signed Tanaka as a free agent in 2014, his $155 million salary over seven years came with high expectations. For the duration of the contract, Tanaka met those expectations and then some. Over the past 20 years or so, when the Yankees have made a free agent splash for a pitcher it's been a feast or famine proposition. Tanaka is firmly in the feast category and finds himself in elite company when it comes to expensive Yankee pitching this century.
Not only did Tanaka fortify the top of the rotation for the entirety of his Yankee career, but he rose to the occasion in October. His stellar performances in the American League Championship Series against Houston in both 2017 and 2019 - the two most important Yankee playoff series of the last decade or so - kept the Yankees afloat despite shortcomings elsewhere in the rotation. When they desperately needed it, he was the closest thing the team had to a vintage Andy Pettitte.
Tanaka was also the ultimate team player. During his first season in New York, he suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his right arm, an injury where Tommy John surgery is an option. That option would require missing an entire season though, and Tanaka never seriously considered it. Instead, he rehabbed his arm and pitched through the injury for the rest of his Yankee career and never again missed significant time.
In 2017, Tanaka continued his team-first attitude. That off-season, he could have exercised an opt-out in his contract and scored a richer deal in free agency. However, he decided against it and ensured he would remain a Yankee for another three years at a time when the future seemed bright.
With that move, Tanaka showed the Yankees far more faith and respect than they showed him this past off-season. Now the Yankee front office is paying the price for that disrespect, as he is exactly the type of player this team needs right now.
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