How Can The Yankees Close The Gap In The American League?
It's time for amateur GM's everywhere to start prescribing a treatment plan for the Yankees' woes. As mentioned here recently, the biggest problem in Yankeeland heading into this offseason is the large gap that still exists between the Yankees and the Houston Astros. That gap exists for two main reasons: (1) for more than twenty years the Yankees have failed miserably to turn homegrown players into everyday major leaguers, and (2) they refuse to spend the money it would take to make up for the first reason, despite being the wealthiest team in baseball.
The Yankees aren't a bad team. They're just not good enough to be the top World Series contender that they say they want to be. The glaring holes in the roster are relatively easy to diagnose. However, coming up with a plan to fill those holes from the corner the Yankees have painted themselves into is a different story. Here's my amateur attempt, which has a roughly 0% chance of actually happening.
Assumptions
Most of the top free agents available on the market this year are shortstops, which has many outsiders calling for the Yankees to make a splash and shore up the left side of their infield. That's not realistic given how the Yankees operate these days. Oswald Peraza is major league ready, and top prospect Anthony Volpe is close. Combine them with a healthy DJ LeMahieu and part-time duty from super utility man Oswaldo Cabrera, and you're looking at your Yankee shortstops and third basemen for 2023. Cutting ties with Josh Donaldson and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa would be a costly pill to swallow, but it's an improvement.
Let's also assume the Yankees correct another mistake and sign Aaron Judge to a contract extension like they should have about a year ago. In choosing to ignore negotiations with Judge until the eleventh hour last year they likley cost themselves upwards of $100 million this year. Nobody should feel bad for the Yankees as a result.
While we're at it, I think we can safely say the team will retain Anthony Rizzo on a new contract after he declined his player option for 2023. This will also cost them a few more million than it should have, but that's what you get when your free agency strategy is to wait out low-ball offers rather than actually negotiate.
Our safest assumption will be that the starting rotation will largely remain as is. The Yankees will role with Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German who are each either signed for 2023 or are under team control. It's possible that they attempt to bring back Jameson Taillon or a similar mid-level arm, but nothing major will happen here.
.jpg)
Lastly, we're going to take a leap of faith and say that the Yankees will be willing to spend a little more money than usual this offseason. The contracts of Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton are off the books now, they reset their luxury tax a season ago, and they got a huge ratings boost on YES thanks to Aaron Judge's home run chase in 2022. Even a small market team would start spending a bit more given those circumstances. Plus, it's kind of their only option if they want to seriously compete with the Astros next year.
What follows are recommended moves that would cost the Yankees nothing more than money. Of which they have plenty.
Bring in a legitimate starting catcher
This fall the Philadelphia Phillies proved that even teams with glaring flaws can make some noise in the playoffs. They were one of the worst fielding teams in the league, their best baserunner was a catcher, and outside of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler their pitching was suspect. What they did have was a lineup with no easy outs that could explode at any moment. They rode that lineup all the way to the World Series and stood toe-to-toe with the Astros, or at least put up a much better fight than the Yankees.
In October, the Yankee lineup card for each game had four automatic outs which made things very easy on the opposing pitching staff. Their most conspicuous weakness was behind the plate as neither Yankee catcher reached base safely in their series with Houston. This shouldn't be surprising since the Yankees' plan for 2022 was to rely on two lifelong back-up backstops, and they never deviated from that. That's just unacceptable for a team with the financial power of the Yankees.
No disrespect to Kyle Higashioka, who has been a serviceable bench player for six years now. Ditto for Jose Trevino, one of the best feel-good stories of the year. His surprising first half with the bat resulted in an even more surprising All-Star selection and he earned a Gold Glove. However, his bat came crashing to earth in the second half, as any reasonable person would have expected. As Tevino's bat got cold, Higashioka's warmed up down the stretch, yet the overall result was still underwhelming.
If the Yankees plan on rolling with two 30-something bench players again at catcher next year, they can expect that hole in the lineup to remain. Instead, they should bid a bittersweet adieu to The Home Run Stroka, retain Trevino as a true back-up and late inning defensive replacement, and sign Willson Contreras this winter. The longtime Cub has a seven-year track record of durability behind the plate and a solid bat that shows no signs of slowing down. He offers instant and significant improvement at this sore spot for the Yankees.
.jpg)
A lefty for left field
The combination of the Joey Gallo experiment falling on its face, a disappointing and injury-riddled year from Aaron Hicks, and a general unwillingness to play Giancarlo Stanton in the field meant that the Yankees best option in left field in September and October this year was Oswaldo Cabrera. Over 580 games in the minor leagues, the rookie had played exactly one in left field.
Cabrera did bring his trademark energy and enthusiasm to the position, but that only gets you so far. He was hitless in the Yankees series against the Astros and is better suited as an infielder anyway. To fill the sizable hole in left field, and add a much needed left-handed bat, the Yankees have a few options this offseason.
The best candidate would be free agent and former New York Met Brandon Nimmo. His experience in center field would make for an easy transition to Yankee Stadium's left field. Offensively, he's a solid contact hitter with some pop, which the Yankees should be craving. He's not a slam dunk, though. As the top outfielder available in free agency there will be a bidding war for his services. Spending top dollar on an injury prone 30-year old - he's exceeded 100 games played only twice in seven years - might not be the wisest investment.
Recently, the Yankees have had rumored interest in Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida, who is likely to be a part of the free agent class this year. The 29-year old has put up impressive numbers in Japan, showing a mastery of the strike zone and making tons of contact. That's music to the ears of Yankee fans that recall Hideki Matsui having a similar career in Japan before bolting to the Bronx as a 29-year old two decades ago. Given Yoshida's clean bill of health recently, he might be a better option than Nimmo.
Other, less costly, back-up plans for left field include another injury prone former Met in Michael Conforto, the speedy Cedric Mullins who is one year removed from his first All-Star appearance, or bringing back Andrew Benintendi. In each case, the hope would be that Yankee Stadium helps restore the power that these players have lost in recent years. Opportunities to upgrade left field are there for the Yankees, they just need to choose one.
Find an ace or two for the bullpen
The Yankees' bullpen has been a team strength for years but started to show signs of vulnerability in 2022, epsecially in the playoffs. If only somebody could have seen this coming. Gone are the flame-throwers that used to dominate late innings with strikeout rates that seemed impossible. Closer Aroldis Chapman was eminently hittable as his fastball consistently dipped below 100 mph in 2022. Other familiar names like Jonathan Loaisiga, Chad Green and Zack Britton also proved to be human, spending significant time on the injured list.
With the big guns malfunctioning, the Yankees relied on arms with no proven track record like Clay Holmes, Michael King, Wandy Peralta, and Lucas Luetge. For a while it worked. Relying heavily on their sinker/slider combination, King and Holmes were borderline unhittable. Holmes even made his first career All-Star appearance after taking the closer role from Chapman. Then reality set in.
During the Yankees' late summer swoon, injuries and ineffectiveness with this new reliever group started to pile up. At the trade deadline Brian Cashman made deals for Lou Trivino and Scott Effross to bolster the bullpen. Solid arms, but not exactly elite. By October 1st Effross needed Tommy John surgery and the Yankees were left with precious few reliable pitchers to navigate the crucial late innings of October baseball. The results were not great.
Cashman needs to have a better plan for the bullpen heading into 2023. He's been capable of putting together some of the best relief groups in baseball in recent years, so re-kindling that magic will be critical to a successful offseason. Obviously, the most important part of that will be finding the go-to guy for the highest leverage relief innings and to fill-in as closer should Holmes go down again.
The Yankees got a close look in the ALCS at the best free agent reliever available on the market in Rafael Montero. His four-pitch repertoire brings a unique look in relief, and it certainly worked as part of the Astros' lights-out bullpen this October.
Another intriguing option is Shintaro Fujinami. The big righty from Japan will be available to major league teams this year and can throw serious heat that misses bats consistently. If the Yankees feel they can help him get a handle on his control issues he could be a difference maker in the Bronx.
******
The past couple of winters have been underwhelming for Brian Cashman and the Yankees. Amazingly, the signing of Gerrit Cole in 2019 was the last time they made a big splash in the offseason. Three years is way too long to stand by and watch, especially when the Astros are tightening their grip on the league. They can act now, or expect another early exit next fall.
All statistics in this article were obtained from Baseball Reference.
Comments
Post a Comment