What's Up With the Baby Bombers?
Each year just before Spring Training, The Athletic's Keith Law releases his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The amount of thought and research put into the list is impressive enough, but it's also a great way to gauge how strong your favorite team's player pipeline is.
For Yankee fans, Law's 2023 rankings offer some obvious reasons to be optimistic about the future. However, it's not all sunshine and roses. There are some glaring weaknesses within the Yankee system and a significant talent gap between the Baby Bombers and some of their divisional rivals. Ultimately, what will matter most in Yankeeland is whether the organization can convert one or more of these prospects into a star player. Amazingly, it's something they've done only once over the last 20 years or so.
So let's dig in and see what's cooking on the farm.
Veni, Vidi, Volpe
The crown jewel of the Yankee farm system was on full display this spring and he shined brightly. Prior to Grapefruit League action, it was a given that Anthony Volpe would start the regular season at Triple-A to get a bit more seasoning before making the jump to the big leagues. Amazingly, he defied the odds and forced the Yankees' hand to name him their Opening Day starter at shortstop.
Volpe debuted on Law's prospect list last year at number 10 and has jumped two spots to eight in 2023. That despite a disastrous start to his season at Double-A Somerset last year. For the balance of the year he showed what he can be at full potential: a top-of-the-order shortstop with no real weakness in his game.
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Even more impressive than his play on the field has been Volpe's work ethic and maturity at the ripe age of 21. Earlier this spring Willie Randolph indicated that he saw shades of Don Mattingly and a certain former Yankee shortstop in Volpe. Of course, those comparisons are entirely unfair at this point. Still, Randolph isn't the type to blow smoke for no reason, so we shouldn't be surprised if there's some fire underneath it.
Given how well Volpe performed this spring, the Yankees obviously feel confident that he's ready to be their everyday shortstop. Still, this decision doesn't come without risk. When the Yankees made a 21 year-old Derek Jeter their everyday big league shortstop in 1996, he had 158 games in Triple-A under his belt, in which he performed at a high level. To date, Volpe's only Triple-A experience was a 22-game run to close out 2022, in which he struggled quite a bit. Some early struggles in the Bronx may be on the horizon for the youngster.
Even with the risk, the ceiling for Volpe with the Yankees in 2023 is sky high compared to what they would be getting with Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the starting lineup. So kudos to the Yankee front office for going with the higher risk, higher reward solution rather than the safe bet. It's not something we've become accustomed to in recent years. Plus, should Volpe stumble hard out of the gate, they have a safety net...
Forward Progress
On the surface of the Yankees' prospect pool sits another major league ready shortstop. Oswald Peraza came in at number 76 on Law's list - up 19 spots from last year - after playing a full season in Triple-A in 2022. He finished out the year with the big league club in September and played well enough to earn a playoff roster spot in October. In his summary for Peraza, Law asserted that, "Peraza is a plus defender at short right now, and a plus runner, with enough power that he could be someone’s starter right now in the big leagues." So before Volpe's meteoric rise, he was the front-runner to earn the starting shortstop job for 2023.
Unfortunately for Peraza, his bat never quite warmed up this spring, which likely made the Yankees' decision with Volpe easier. At just 22 years old, there's still plenty of time and opportunity for Peraza to find his way to the Bronx. Whether injuries/ineffectiveness open up a spot at shortstop or third base, or Kiner-Falefa fails to thrive in the utility role he'll have to start the season, it would be no surprise to see Peraza playing regularly for the Yankees this season.
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Two other Yankee prospects made significant jumps in Law's rankings. Both currently project to be center fielders. Let's start with the more exciting one. Evaluators have been drooling over Jasson Dominguez since he was signed as an international free agent at 16 years old. It's not hard to see why. With an Incredible Hulk-like physique and enough speed to steal 37 bases across three minor league levels last year, he inspires the imagination to run wild. In his first full minor league season he showed flashes of fulfilling his limitless potential. Law noticed, ranking him at 32, up 46 spots from where he was last year.
The 20-year old Dominguez was invited to spring training last month where he pushed the hype train to full speed. In 11 games he hit .455 with four home runs and seemed poised to become a top-10 prospect before too long. Law points out that he has some work to do when it comes to facing pitchers with more advanced repertoires, and he'll likely get that chance by starting his 2023 season at Double-A Somerset. With a bit of fine-tuning, the Yankees may have their center fielder of the future.
Making his debut on Law's ranking list in 2023 was Everson Pereira, who sits at 86. He's an athletic center fielder who has potential in all facets of the game, but to a lesser degree than Dominguez. The key to Pereira panning out may be his ability to cut down on strike outs and make contact more frequently, not an uncommon problem for a 21-year old in Double-A. Since he'll likely be on the same roster as Dominguez at Somerset this year, he'll have to play a corner outfield position more often than center. That flexibility should only help his value as a potential big league player moving forward.
The Yankees' top prospects have been showing improvement in Law's rankings for a couple of years now. If that trend continues, the Yankees could have the left side of their infield set for years to come, and get Aaron Judge some much needed help in the outfield over the next few years.
No Aces in the Deck
In addition to detailing the top 100 prospects overall in baseball, Law also releases a top 20 prospect list for each team. We now know what the very top of that list looks like for the Yankees, but how about the rest? The main takeaway is that while nine of the top 20 Yankee prospects are pitchers, their next top-of-the-rotation gem is not currently in the system. None of those nine pitchers currently project to be anything more than a fourth starter in the majors. Troubling as it is, this isn't a new trend for the Yankees.
In recent years, Clarke Schmidt bounced around Law's top 100 and finally broke through in the majors as a reliever last year. He's penciled in as the Yankees number two starter to open the season, but that's only because the other guys in the rotation are dropping like flies. In an ideal situation, he's lined up as a stretch reliever on this team.
As recently as 2021, Deivi Garcia was in Law's top 100. Now, after two years of struggles both in the majors and minors, he'll be buried on the depth chart at Double-A Somerset. Luis Medina was the Yankees highest rated pitcher last year before being made expendable in the Frankie Montas trade. At 24 years old, he still hasn't made a Triple-A roster yet. For a while now, the Yankees have proven incapable of drafting or signing amateur pitching talent and developing those arms into viable major league starting pitchers.
The top pitcher in the system currently is Luis Serna, an 18-year old who's likely to spend the entire year in Single-A. It's going to be a while before we see a homegrown ace in pinstripes. As an organization, the Yankees should be making swift strides to reform how they develop pitchers.
The AL East May Get a Facelift Soon
Over the last six years, one of the surest bets in baseball is that the Baltimore Orioles will finish dead last in the American League East. Last year, thanks in large part to Law's number one prospect in 2022, Adley Rutschman, they finished over .500 and five games ahead of the Red Sox to get out of the division's basement. While they might not be ready to make the jump to contender just yet, Law's take on the Baltimore farm system indicates that they'll continue their ascension in 2023.
Even after graduating last year's number one prospect, Baltimore's system is now the third best in baseball. They boast the number two prospect this year in Gunnar Henderson who will be their Opening Day third baseman. They have five other prospects in the top 100 for a total of six, more than any other team in the division. The traditional powerhouse teams in the East will have to deal with Baltimore's abundance of talent sooner than later.
Here's a summary of how each system in the AL East ranks according to Law:
The Rays - who never seem to run out of unspectacular but solid players - have plenty of youngsters ready to bolster an offense that struggled last year. They should remain contenders, and pain in the Yankees' side, for years to come.
The good news in the Bronx is that the Red Sox system is in the basement and that their own system is improving overall, jumping from 22nd in 2022 to 14th this year in Law's rankings. But there's a catch.
The Yankees are no longer a team that's willing to spend its way out of its roster holes. In order for the Yankees to succeed for an extended period of time, an elite farm system is vital, and 14th out of 30 just isn't going to cut it. What that means for the Yankees's current crop of prospects is that the future of the franchise is truly in their hands. If Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez become the superstars that their talent suggests they can be, the Yankees should continue to be a perennial playoff team. If not, well, we see what's happening in Boston. No pressure, guys.
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