The 2025 Baby Bombers: The Cavalry Isn't Coming
Whether it's home run barrages, torpedo bats, Aaron Judge doing Aaron Judge things, or the shock of seeing facial hair in pinstripes, there's been no shortage of excitement in this young Yankee season. It's almost like we've forgotten about the major injuries that dominated the headlines this spring. Yet, sooner or later, the Yankees' razor thin depth will be tested and they'll need to rely on contributions from the Baby Bombers down on the farm. Are they ready for that test?
We can answer that question by digging into Keith Law's latest Top 100 MLB Prospect List like we do every year here at Jimmy Sez. We'll also use Law's Top 20 Yankees Prospect List to assess what's happening in the system, and his Farm System Rankings to see how they're stacking up against their division rivals. Spoiler alert: it's not looking good...
What Happened?
Over the last few years, the Yankees' future seemed on the upswing. In 2022, Keith Law ranked the Yankee farm system at 22 out of 30 MLB teams. The following year they jumped to 14 on the strength of Anthony Volpe and a very young Jasson Dominguez. A promising draft and a solid international free agent haul pushed the Yankees to seventh in 2024. Now? Law sees the system as plummeting all the way down to 21st. So what has caused such a precipitous drop in such a short time? As with most things in life, it's a combination of a number of factors.
First, many of the players that formed such a promising young crop of prospects last year were either very ineffective or very injured in 2024. When your most promising group of players either never reaches the field or stinks when they do, it's hard to justify that the potential still exists. Second, many of the players that occupied the top of Yankee prospect lists in recent years are either in the major leagues or playing for other organizations. The trades for Juan Soto and Devin Williams over the last two years have cut into their organizational depth. So have the relatively recent promotions of Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, Ben Rice, and Jasson Dominguez (who is technically still considered a prospect by Law this year).
Third, the New York Yankees - the biggest big market big league team in America - refuse to act like they have more financial power than any other franchise in sports. Instead of filling glaring roster holes by spending the money it takes to plug in viable major league players, they take their chances with players who make pocket change in comparison. Therefore, all those major league promotions are by design, but...Fourth, amazingly, for about 20 years now, the Yankees are still very bad at converting minor league prospects into usable major league players. They may have struck a massive pot of gold with Aaron Judge. Yet, aside from him you can't name another solid player in the major leagues that got that way under the Yankees' guidance. The verdict is still out on the Volpe/Wells/Rice/Dominguez contingent mentioned above. How can you see a whole lot of potential in a franchise's prospects when they've proven incapable of unlocking that potential?
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Add it all up and it's easy to see why stock in the Yankee farm system is lower than it's been in years. I suppose the front office is banking on striking gold again, though, with Spencer Jones. He's a 6-foot-7 slugging outfielder that hits baseballs harder than few human beings ever have. Remind you of someone? If Jones somehow does become the next Yankee superstar, you can guarantee that it's because he's cut from the same cloth as Aaron Judge, and not the result of anything the Yankees organization did.
Don't Look Up
As has been the case for a while now, there are multiple teams in direct competition with the Yankees that boast top 10 farm systems. It's sure to make any Yankee fan either nauseous or nervous, but the Red Sox are reaching the apex of their rapid ascent up Law's rankings. His number one prospect, Roman Anthony, is a lefty-swinging outfielder with an efficient, powerful bat that keeps getting better and may find its way to Boston this year. We're already seeing what Kristian Campbell - another top 10 prospect - can do in the big leagues as a member of the Red Sox, and infielder Marcelo Mayer has been on all top prospect lists since 2022. Boston has experienced a four-year playoff drought, but their talent pipeline suggests that their fortunes will be changing soon.
It's probably no surprise to anyone who follows baseball that the Tampa Bay Rays can perennially be found within Law's top 10 systems. It's also no surprise that they're not a top heavy system touting mega-prospects. They just seem to have a never-ending talent pool of useful, if not spectacular, players that can contribute to a winning brand of baseball at the major league level. We can expect more of the same from Tampa.
Don't let Baltimore's low ranking fool you. The only reason the Orioles aren't higher is because within the last three years they have converted - deep breath - Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday from blue chip prospects into major leaguers. With that kind of talent, you can bank on Baltimore to keep churning out 90+ win seasons for years to come. Oh, and they're not done...Law's number three prospect is Samuel Basallo, a big catcher who's only getting stronger and may eventually push Rutschman out from behind the plate for the Orioles before too long.
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When it comes to a promising future, the Yankees are clearly behind their AL East counterparts. It may not be fair to heap expectations on the Volpe/Wells/Rice/Dominguez quartet, but so much of the Yankees' ability to compete in this division over the next handful of years will depend on their viability as healthy, productive players in the Bronx. If they falter, at least three teams will be ready to pounce on the opportunity.
Looking for promising arms? Check the trainer's room
In Law's list of the top 20 Yankee prospects, 13 of them are pitchers. That's where the good news about young Yankee pitching ends. Of those 13, just one is in the top seven in the system. The other 12? Law doesn't see anything better than a fourth-starter in the bunch. To add injury to insult, most of these "promising" arms have missed significant time recently with a wide array of maladies.
For example, the Yankees best pitching prospect last year - according to Law - was Chase Hampton. His 2025 season stopped before it started as he need Tommy John surgery this spring. Law still sees him as the Yankees' third best arm in the system. Law's second-ranked Yankee pitcher last year, Henry Lalane, missed nearly all of the 2024 season with shoulder trouble. While there's still potential, he'll be on a very strict innings limit in 2025, so he's years away from being able to help in the big leagues.
When reading through Law's summaries of each of the rest of the Baby Bomber pitchers I get an overwhelming feeling of "meh". Will Warren is justifying that feeling in real time right now. Warren has made the top 20 for a few years running and was pressed into action by the Yankees last year when the pitching staff needed reinforcements. In five starts and one relief appearance he went 0-3 with a 10.32 ERA. Woof. This season, the Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil injuries have made Warren a part of the rotation since Opening Day. So far, he's had one decent start at home against Arizona (five innings, two runs) and one dud in Pittsburgh (four innings, four runs), both Yankee losses. While he's on the big league roster, we'll likely continue to see some mix of decent and awful starts from the rookie every fifth day. This is the best the Yankees have to offer. No offense to Will Warren, who's doing the best he can, but it doesn't bode well for the future.
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Despite the gloomy assessment of pitching within the Yankees' system, Law does see a potential diamond in the rough. His third-ranked Yankee prospect is Ben Hess, their first round selection in last years' draft out of Alabama. He's built like a linebacker and has enough of an arsenal to rise through the system as a starter in 2025. Yet, if recent history tells us anything, it's that Hess will miss significant time this summer and we'll still just be talking about his awesome potential if he can get healthy a year from now. Instead, maybe we should get him a torpedo bat and see if he likes third base...
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