Thoughts on the Yankees Heading Into 2020: Vol. 3
Welcome back to a world with no baseball. As if that wasn't sad enough, the Baseball Hall of Fame gave us all another gut punch earlier today. Oh well. Here are my final thoughts on the 2020 Yankees in advance of whatever season they're able fit in. The first two parts of this series can be found here and here. Hope all is happy and healthy in your neck of the woods.
CC Sabathia's remarkable Yankee career is over
In December 2008 George Steinbrenner responded to the first playoff-less season the Yankees had since 1994 with the fire of nearly a half billion dollars' worth of suns. The crown jewel of that spending spree was a big lefty named CC Sabathia, who had just nearly won the NL Cy Young despite playing only a half-season in that league. The Yankees enticed him with the largest contract offer ever for a pitcher, and he deserved every dollar of it, so expectations were sky high in New York.
Sabathia proved right away that living up to those expectations would be no problem. He put together a representative season in 2009, logging 230 innings with nearly 200 strikeouts, a 3.37 ERA and a major-league leading 19 wins. He saved his best for October. Serving as the anchor of a shortened three-man rotation, the Yankees won four of the five games he started, where he pitched to a sparkling 1.98 ERA. He was named the ALCS MVP and helped win a pivotal Game Four in a triumphant World Series over the Phillies. The big lefty put his team on his ample back and did exactly what he was brought in to do.
For the next three seasons Sabathia continued to be both the ace and workhorse of the Yankee pitching staff while his supporting cast changed with frequency. He averaged 225 innings pitched per season with an impressive ERA+ of 135. He also continued to thrive under pressure. In 2012 he started a decisive Game Five against the Orioles in the ALDS and pitched a complete game gem. After he allowed just four hits and one run to help his team advance, he was the only one who seemed unimpressed. "It is what I'm here for," he told USA Today, "I guess I should feel a little pressure or something like that, but I don't...I feel like I need to go out and win every time out and I think that takes the outside pressure off me."
That combination of performance and attitude made Sabathia one of the most successful big-name acquisitions in Yankee history. However, his massive workload would soon take its toll. As various injuries riddled his giant frame, 2013 was by far the worst season of his career to that point, and things got worse in 2014. During the off-season he dropped 40 pounds in an effort to get healthy again, but it did nothing to improve his results on the mound. He was limited to just eight starts and needed season-ending knee surgery.
Sabathia's struggles continued in 2015. That August he headed back to the DL with lingering soreness in his surgically repaired knee and a bloated 5.27 ERA. At 35 years old with nearly 3,000 major league innings logged on his left arm, the end of his career seemed more likely than a resurgence. Sabathia had other plans. He returned to the rotation just a couple weeks later, sporting a fancy new knee brace, and put the Yankees on his back once again. The team won three of the last four games he started while he pitched to a 2.22 ERA and helped get the Yankees back to the playoffs after a two-year drought.
That October Sabathia also made a revelation that put his struggles over the prior three years into perspective. He was checking into rehab due to alcohol abuse, which had a been a major problem in his life since 2012. He returned to the Yankees a new man in 2016, and re-invented himself as a pitcher. No longer able to be the power pitcher he was in his youth, with the help of Andy Pettitte he learned how to finesse his way through a lineup. With a cut fastball added to his repertoire, he became adept at inducing weak contact from hitters.
Sabathia 2.0 may not have been terribly exciting to watch, but he became an effective member of the rotation again. He was also back to his old October heroics. The 2017 Yankees - the most exciting Yankee team since the 2009 World Series winner - found themselves down 2-0 to Houston in the ALCS and sent him to the mound for Game Three. He responded with six shutout innings, surrendering just three hits, and nearly shifted momentum of the series for good. The Yankees would lose in seven under controversial circumstances that may have been touched on by members of the sports media this winter.
Last year Sabathia trudged through one last season and at 38 years old his body struggled to keep up. In a rematch of the 2017 ALCS against the Astros, Sabathia made the roster as an extra arm in the bullpen. With the Yankees reeling in Game Four he was brought in to get a few outs in the eighth inning. After inducing a pop-up to record his second out, it was clear that he suffered a dislocation in his left shoulder and he knew it. Ever the gamer, he didn't let on and tried to pitch through it before Yankee trainers forced him from the game. An emotional Sabathia left the field with his head down to a standing ovation from the Yankee faithful. As he noted in his post-game press conference, he literally pitched until he couldn't anymore.
As far as legacies go, Sabathia retired as the latest in a long line of great Yankee lefties. In a farewell tweet after he retired he said, "All I ever wanted was to be a great teammate and win." That much was evident with every action and word of his Yankee career. He was the rare case of a big-money free agent living up to the hype and he did it with an understated toughness that will ingratiate himself with Yankee fans for the rest of his life. Thanks for everything over the last 11 years, CC, you're leaving huge shoes to fill.
Sabathia proved right away that living up to those expectations would be no problem. He put together a representative season in 2009, logging 230 innings with nearly 200 strikeouts, a 3.37 ERA and a major-league leading 19 wins. He saved his best for October. Serving as the anchor of a shortened three-man rotation, the Yankees won four of the five games he started, where he pitched to a sparkling 1.98 ERA. He was named the ALCS MVP and helped win a pivotal Game Four in a triumphant World Series over the Phillies. The big lefty put his team on his ample back and did exactly what he was brought in to do.
CC Sabathia was a dominant force right away for the Yankees in 2009.
chris.ptacek/Wikimedia Commons
For the next three seasons Sabathia continued to be both the ace and workhorse of the Yankee pitching staff while his supporting cast changed with frequency. He averaged 225 innings pitched per season with an impressive ERA+ of 135. He also continued to thrive under pressure. In 2012 he started a decisive Game Five against the Orioles in the ALDS and pitched a complete game gem. After he allowed just four hits and one run to help his team advance, he was the only one who seemed unimpressed. "It is what I'm here for," he told USA Today, "I guess I should feel a little pressure or something like that, but I don't...I feel like I need to go out and win every time out and I think that takes the outside pressure off me."
That combination of performance and attitude made Sabathia one of the most successful big-name acquisitions in Yankee history. However, his massive workload would soon take its toll. As various injuries riddled his giant frame, 2013 was by far the worst season of his career to that point, and things got worse in 2014. During the off-season he dropped 40 pounds in an effort to get healthy again, but it did nothing to improve his results on the mound. He was limited to just eight starts and needed season-ending knee surgery.
Sabathia's struggles continued in 2015. That August he headed back to the DL with lingering soreness in his surgically repaired knee and a bloated 5.27 ERA. At 35 years old with nearly 3,000 major league innings logged on his left arm, the end of his career seemed more likely than a resurgence. Sabathia had other plans. He returned to the rotation just a couple weeks later, sporting a fancy new knee brace, and put the Yankees on his back once again. The team won three of the last four games he started while he pitched to a 2.22 ERA and helped get the Yankees back to the playoffs after a two-year drought.
That October Sabathia also made a revelation that put his struggles over the prior three years into perspective. He was checking into rehab due to alcohol abuse, which had a been a major problem in his life since 2012. He returned to the Yankees a new man in 2016, and re-invented himself as a pitcher. No longer able to be the power pitcher he was in his youth, with the help of Andy Pettitte he learned how to finesse his way through a lineup. With a cut fastball added to his repertoire, he became adept at inducing weak contact from hitters.
Sabathia 2.0 may not have been terribly exciting to watch, but he became an effective member of the rotation again. He was also back to his old October heroics. The 2017 Yankees - the most exciting Yankee team since the 2009 World Series winner - found themselves down 2-0 to Houston in the ALCS and sent him to the mound for Game Three. He responded with six shutout innings, surrendering just three hits, and nearly shifted momentum of the series for good. The Yankees would lose in seven under controversial circumstances that may have been touched on by members of the sports media this winter.
Last year Sabathia trudged through one last season and at 38 years old his body struggled to keep up. In a rematch of the 2017 ALCS against the Astros, Sabathia made the roster as an extra arm in the bullpen. With the Yankees reeling in Game Four he was brought in to get a few outs in the eighth inning. After inducing a pop-up to record his second out, it was clear that he suffered a dislocation in his left shoulder and he knew it. Ever the gamer, he didn't let on and tried to pitch through it before Yankee trainers forced him from the game. An emotional Sabathia left the field with his head down to a standing ovation from the Yankee faithful. As he noted in his post-game press conference, he literally pitched until he couldn't anymore.
As far as legacies go, Sabathia retired as the latest in a long line of great Yankee lefties. In a farewell tweet after he retired he said, "All I ever wanted was to be a great teammate and win." That much was evident with every action and word of his Yankee career. He was the rare case of a big-money free agent living up to the hype and he did it with an understated toughness that will ingratiate himself with Yankee fans for the rest of his life. Thanks for everything over the last 11 years, CC, you're leaving huge shoes to fill.
State of the Starting Rotation
The Yankees may be losing a longstanding member of their starting rotation, but they have replaced him in the most expensive way possible. On the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history, Gerrit Cole comes to the Yankees under very similar circumstances to CC Sabathia's 2009 arrival in New York. He's in the middle of his prime, coming off a Cy Young-worthy season, and was brought in with the main objective of ending a long championship drought in The Bronx.
There's no questioning Cole's talent. The righty struck out 326 batters last year - the highest single season total since Randy Johnson's 334 in 2002 for Arizona - while walking just 48. What inspired the Yankees to finally open the vault for a star player, though, was his unparalleled enthusiasm for the minutiae of pitching. Whether it's digging deep into analytics, picking his catcher's brain, or assessing the risk of missing his location, Cole will leave no stone unturned in his pursuit of being the best pitcher he can be. Anything short of another Cy Young-worthy performance will be a disappointment for all parties involved.
Next up in the depth chart is the longest-tenured member of the Yankee pitching staff, Masahiro Tanaka. It seems like just yesterday that Tanaka was taking the major leagues by storm as a rookie until a partially torn UCL derailed his season. That same injury has been a hot button issue throughout his career since he controversially chose rehab over Tommy John surgery, but that UCL has held up year after year. Tanaka has been well worth the hefty 7-year, $155 million deal he signed in 2014, especially when it matters most. He's been the best and most consistent starter for the Yankees in October over the last five years. On the last year of that deal, it would be fitting to see Tanaka pitch another playoff gem if such an event happens this year.
The two most promising arms of the starting rotation behind Gerrit Cole in 2020 would have been Luis Severino and James Paxton. After dominant performances in 2017 and 2018, injuries plagued Severino's 2019 season. Hopes were high for the 26-year old, yet those were wrapped in a wet blanket this February when it was revealed he needed Tommy John surgery. We won't see him again until 2021 at the earliest.
In his debut season with the Yankees Paxton was uneven in 2019, turning things around down the stretch and in a couple of starts against Houston in October. However, the lefty came to the team with a reputation of being injury prone and that held up this spring. In early February he required back surgery and would have missed at least the first month or so of the season had it started on time. It's seeming likely that if an MLB season happens this year, Paxton could be ready for Opening Day. They'll need him, as his presence in the rotation could mean the difference between success and failure come playoff time.
At the back of the rotation, J.A. Happ will still be around to eat innings. The lefty came to the Yankees as something of a savior near the trade deadline in 2018. Down the stretch he went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA that year, but the 37-year old showed his age in 2019. In just over 160 innings, he struggled his way a 90 ERA+. Unfortunately, not much more than that can be expected from Happ in 2020.
The biggest wild card on the staff this year will be Jordan Montgomery, who just a few years ago was considered the next big, tough lefty on the Yankees to follow in the footsteps of Pettitte and Sabathia. After a rock solid rookie campaign, he needed Tommy John surgery after just six starts in 2018 and has been on the back burner ever since. By the end of 2019 he was fully recovered and was throwing extremely well this spring. There may still be a bright future for the 27-year old and if baseball happens in 2020, Montgomery will show us how bright it will be.
With the potential 2020 schedule shrinking by the day, as do the chances of seeing Domingo German pitch this year. Considering the reason that he'll be missing time, it's hard to feel bad for him, but it does likely mean an increased role for Jonathan Loaisiga. After making a rapid ascent through the Yankee minor league system in 2018, the hard-throwing righty has spent brief stints as a swingman in The Bronx, showing some promise along the way. The 25-year old will get a chance to earn a more permanent spot in the rotation if baseball happens this year.
The Yankee starting rotation is in the best shape it's been in for a long while thanks to the king's ransom they invested in Gerrit Cole. Pairing him with Tanaka come October, the team will have a pair of aces that few teams can match in a short series. Depth is still a concern, but it's OK to be excited about the Yankees finally having a rotation built for the playoffs.
There's no questioning Cole's talent. The righty struck out 326 batters last year - the highest single season total since Randy Johnson's 334 in 2002 for Arizona - while walking just 48. What inspired the Yankees to finally open the vault for a star player, though, was his unparalleled enthusiasm for the minutiae of pitching. Whether it's digging deep into analytics, picking his catcher's brain, or assessing the risk of missing his location, Cole will leave no stone unturned in his pursuit of being the best pitcher he can be. Anything short of another Cy Young-worthy performance will be a disappointment for all parties involved.
Next up in the depth chart is the longest-tenured member of the Yankee pitching staff, Masahiro Tanaka. It seems like just yesterday that Tanaka was taking the major leagues by storm as a rookie until a partially torn UCL derailed his season. That same injury has been a hot button issue throughout his career since he controversially chose rehab over Tommy John surgery, but that UCL has held up year after year. Tanaka has been well worth the hefty 7-year, $155 million deal he signed in 2014, especially when it matters most. He's been the best and most consistent starter for the Yankees in October over the last five years. On the last year of that deal, it would be fitting to see Tanaka pitch another playoff gem if such an event happens this year.
Masahiro Tanaka has been rock solid in his Yankee career thus far.
Arturo Pardavila III/Wikimedia Commons
The two most promising arms of the starting rotation behind Gerrit Cole in 2020 would have been Luis Severino and James Paxton. After dominant performances in 2017 and 2018, injuries plagued Severino's 2019 season. Hopes were high for the 26-year old, yet those were wrapped in a wet blanket this February when it was revealed he needed Tommy John surgery. We won't see him again until 2021 at the earliest.
In his debut season with the Yankees Paxton was uneven in 2019, turning things around down the stretch and in a couple of starts against Houston in October. However, the lefty came to the team with a reputation of being injury prone and that held up this spring. In early February he required back surgery and would have missed at least the first month or so of the season had it started on time. It's seeming likely that if an MLB season happens this year, Paxton could be ready for Opening Day. They'll need him, as his presence in the rotation could mean the difference between success and failure come playoff time.
At the back of the rotation, J.A. Happ will still be around to eat innings. The lefty came to the Yankees as something of a savior near the trade deadline in 2018. Down the stretch he went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA that year, but the 37-year old showed his age in 2019. In just over 160 innings, he struggled his way a 90 ERA+. Unfortunately, not much more than that can be expected from Happ in 2020.
The biggest wild card on the staff this year will be Jordan Montgomery, who just a few years ago was considered the next big, tough lefty on the Yankees to follow in the footsteps of Pettitte and Sabathia. After a rock solid rookie campaign, he needed Tommy John surgery after just six starts in 2018 and has been on the back burner ever since. By the end of 2019 he was fully recovered and was throwing extremely well this spring. There may still be a bright future for the 27-year old and if baseball happens in 2020, Montgomery will show us how bright it will be.
With the potential 2020 schedule shrinking by the day, as do the chances of seeing Domingo German pitch this year. Considering the reason that he'll be missing time, it's hard to feel bad for him, but it does likely mean an increased role for Jonathan Loaisiga. After making a rapid ascent through the Yankee minor league system in 2018, the hard-throwing righty has spent brief stints as a swingman in The Bronx, showing some promise along the way. The 25-year old will get a chance to earn a more permanent spot in the rotation if baseball happens this year.
The Yankee starting rotation is in the best shape it's been in for a long while thanks to the king's ransom they invested in Gerrit Cole. Pairing him with Tanaka come October, the team will have a pair of aces that few teams can match in a short series. Depth is still a concern, but it's OK to be excited about the Yankees finally having a rotation built for the playoffs.
Gary Sanchez is at a career crossroads
Usually by the time a player is four seasons deep into his career you know what you're getting. Yet the verdict is still out on Gary Sanchez. Is he the phenom that battered major league pitching when he first encountered it in 2016, hitting home runs at record rates and single-handedly keeping an offense afloat in just 53 games played?
Is Sanchez a franchise cornerstone who can hit 30+ home runs, drive in nearly 100, all while holding his own behind the plate and helping his team to a deep playoff run? Or is he an injury prone flash in the pan who hits a paltry .186 while people both inside and outside the organization question his effort and his play as a backstop deteriorates? Sanchez was each of those things in consecutive years.
Better yet, is the real Gary Sanchez a one-trick pony? A .230 hitter and average at best catcher whose only real quality skill is hitting the long ball. That's what he was in 2019, but that one trick is a doozy. Making hard contact at a career high rate, he belted 34 home runs in just over 100 games played and was still one of the most valuable catchers in the American League.
The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle of all these very different profiles. Sanchez is not likely to hit as high as .299 again as he did in 2016 or as low as that .186 average in 2018. His ability behind the plate is probably not as terrible as some make it out to be, but he also won't be winning a Gold Glove any time soon. At 27 years old with a good chunk of his prime still in front of him, it's about time that Gary Sanchez shows the baseball world what kind of player he really is.
If this off-season and the short look at the Yankees we saw this spring is any indication, Sanchez seems determined to maximize his potential. He reported to training camp noticeably slimmer than he's been in recent years, and shortly thereafter put his new catching stance on display, designed to help frame pitches better while keeping more of them in front of him. Without saying any words, Sanchez showed that he's poised to shake his reputation as an injury prone, inefficient catcher. That's a great sign.
At the plate, the common theme for Sanchez over the years has been relatively few walks with a lot of strikeouts, but extremely hard contact when he does connect. That's not likely to change too drastically, but thankfully it's a combination that has worked. He ranks fifth among major league catchers in runs created since 2016, and that's having played well over 100 games less than any of the four in front of him. With renewed dedication to his craft this year, there's hope that he can improve an already impressive bat by being more selective and boosting his lackluster batting average.
It's not an exaggeration to say that the 2020 season can make or break the rest of Gary Sanchez's career. Another subpar, injury-riddled year like we saw in 2018 may inspire the Yankees to look elsewhere for their catcher of the future. Another All-Star campaign, as we saw in 2017, could solidify his standing as the Yankee backstop for the next five years or more. Let's hope the only thing he breaks is more records.
Is Sanchez a franchise cornerstone who can hit 30+ home runs, drive in nearly 100, all while holding his own behind the plate and helping his team to a deep playoff run? Or is he an injury prone flash in the pan who hits a paltry .186 while people both inside and outside the organization question his effort and his play as a backstop deteriorates? Sanchez was each of those things in consecutive years.
Better yet, is the real Gary Sanchez a one-trick pony? A .230 hitter and average at best catcher whose only real quality skill is hitting the long ball. That's what he was in 2019, but that one trick is a doozy. Making hard contact at a career high rate, he belted 34 home runs in just over 100 games played and was still one of the most valuable catchers in the American League.
Home run power has been Gary Sanchez's biggest strength in his career.
Arturo Pardavila III/Wikimedia Commons
The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle of all these very different profiles. Sanchez is not likely to hit as high as .299 again as he did in 2016 or as low as that .186 average in 2018. His ability behind the plate is probably not as terrible as some make it out to be, but he also won't be winning a Gold Glove any time soon. At 27 years old with a good chunk of his prime still in front of him, it's about time that Gary Sanchez shows the baseball world what kind of player he really is.
If this off-season and the short look at the Yankees we saw this spring is any indication, Sanchez seems determined to maximize his potential. He reported to training camp noticeably slimmer than he's been in recent years, and shortly thereafter put his new catching stance on display, designed to help frame pitches better while keeping more of them in front of him. Without saying any words, Sanchez showed that he's poised to shake his reputation as an injury prone, inefficient catcher. That's a great sign.
At the plate, the common theme for Sanchez over the years has been relatively few walks with a lot of strikeouts, but extremely hard contact when he does connect. That's not likely to change too drastically, but thankfully it's a combination that has worked. He ranks fifth among major league catchers in runs created since 2016, and that's having played well over 100 games less than any of the four in front of him. With renewed dedication to his craft this year, there's hope that he can improve an already impressive bat by being more selective and boosting his lackluster batting average.
It's not an exaggeration to say that the 2020 season can make or break the rest of Gary Sanchez's career. Another subpar, injury-riddled year like we saw in 2018 may inspire the Yankees to look elsewhere for their catcher of the future. Another All-Star campaign, as we saw in 2017, could solidify his standing as the Yankee backstop for the next five years or more. Let's hope the only thing he breaks is more records.
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