Yankees on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot - The Juice Crew
It's a new year, and Hall of Fame season is really starting to ramp up. For the first time in ten years the BBWAA ballot isn't weighed down by the two biggest stars of the Steroid Era in Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds. While it's nice to have a repreive from the tired arguments on both sides of their cases, there's still no shortage of steriod controversy with this year's crop of candidates. In fact, three of them were active Yankee players when their steroid use - alleged or confirmed - took place.
When it comes to their legacies as a Yankee, Andy Pettitte and Gary Sheffield couldn't be more different. When it comes to their chances for Hall of Fame induction, they're on eerily similar trajectories. With just two years of eligibility left, Sheffield's time is running out. Pettitte has another six years to run the BBWAA gauntlet, but his fate seems no different.
Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez will make his second appearance on the ballot as the most fascinating and complicated Hall of Fame case in baseball history. The results of his debut last year were similar to those of Clemens and Bonds. It will be interesting to see if that continues.
For each player, their JAWS (Jaffe Average WAR Score, developed by Jay Jaffe) value is given along with the average Hall of Famer's JAWS at they player's position. JAWS is a Hall of Fame rating system based on WAR that incorporates both career and peak value. If you're interested in learning more about this, click here.
Andy Pettitte - Starting Pitcher, JAWS: 47.2, HoF JAWS: 61.4
No pitcher in Yankee history has started more games than Andy Pettitte. He and Whitey Ford both have 438 career starts in pinstripes, which is poetic in a way. They were both tough as nails lefties with confidence that far exceeded their talent and for that reason were especially lethal in October.
When it comes to his Hall of Fame case, Pettitte's achievements in the regular season come tantalizingly close to the Hall of Fame standard. He fell short of 300 wins, but his 256 career victories are more than Hall of Famers Jack Morris, Carl Hubbell, and Bob Gibson. He never earned a Cy Young Award, but he finished within the top six of the voting five times. His arm wasn't overpowering, but he rode an effective cut fastball to a career ERA that was 17% above average. If you squint hard enough, he could be worthy of enshrinement.
Where Pettitte's case really comes into focus, though, is his playoff record. From his sophomore season in 1996 all the way through to the end of his career, he was the man the Yankees looked to when they absolutely needed a win come October. No pitcher in major league history has started more playoff games, pitched more playoff innings, or won more playoff games than Pettitte.
As a 37-year old in 2009 Pettitte cemented his legacy as a great big game pitcher. That year he became the first ever starting pitcher to win the series-clinching game in the Division, League Championship and World Series in the same year. Those three victories gave him six playoff series-clinching wins for his career, also an all-time record. This adds some serious heft to his credentials, and under normal circumstances would probably push him over the bar for most voters. But for Pettitte, there's a catch.
Like his good friend and teammate Roger Clemens, Pettitte was named in the Mitchell Report as having used HGH (human growth hormone) multiple times illegally in 2002. The source of the information was Brian McNamee - Clemens' trainer - and Pettitte readily admitted to using HGH twice in order to expedite his recovery from an elbow injury while denying any further use. This was a far cry from Clemens' take on the matter.
A few months after the Mitchell Report was released, it was revealed that during a court hearing that went public Pettitte had also admitted to further HGH use in 2004 when his father was prescribed it for a serious illness. He also described Clemens as detailing his steroid use to him in the late 1990's, just as McNamee had done in the Mitchell Report.
It would have been nice if Pettitte had revealed this additional use during his first admission of guilt for the 2002 evidence. The fact that he didn't made it reasonable to question anything he was saying as fact, but when he reported to spring training in 2008, he came clean on everything and offered heartfelt apologies to his teammates, fans and family.
It was refreshing that Pettitte eventually was honest and forthcoming about his transgressions. It wasn't a popular tactic among those found guilty of steroid use at the time and cost him his friendship with Clemens. Still, he hasn't scored any points with the BBWAA as a result. In his debut on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2019 he received only about 10% of the vote and has seen only modest increases in his share since then. As of this writing, it seems he'll garner just shy of 20% of the vote in 2023, still a fary cry from the 75% needed for election. If HGH use was not a part of his past, those numbers certainly would have been higher.
What seems likely for Pettitte is that he'll remain in Hall of Fame purgatory at the hands of the BBWAA. That means a ten-year stay on the ballot where he won't get particularly close to a plaque in Cooperstown. By the end of that run, however, the stance on steroid use in baseball may have softened quite a bit. If so, it wouldn't be surprising to see a special veterans committee elect Pettitte somewhere down the line. Given his contrite apologies regarding his HGH use, he'd be far from the worst character in baseball to be enshrined.
As a starting pitcher in The New York Yankees All-Time All-Stars, a full profile on Andy Pettitte can be found there.
Gary Sheffield - Right Field, JAWS: 49.3, HoF JAWS: 56.7
A Gary Sheffield at bat was a sight to behold. Most of the great swings throughout baseball history could be described as beautiful, elegant or graceful, but a Sheffield swing would best be described as an act of violence. Before each pitch he would tilt his bat from an upright position back and forth towards the pitcher, like a pendulum getting increasingly out of control, until he lunged forward and unleashed his fury on the ball. It was unlike any swing in baseball seen before or since. Few could argue with the results.
After a tumultuous early career with the Milwaukee Brewers in which he never saw eye to eye with the organization, Sheffield got his career on track with a trade to the San Diego Padres in 1992. That year as their full-time third baseman he hit 33 home runs with 100 RBI's, led the major leagues with 323 total bases, and won the batting title with a .330 average. However, that didn't stop the Padres from trading him the following year to the Florida Marlins.
And so began the nomadic career of Gary Sheffield, where he consistently battered baseballs at every stop. In 1996 with the Marlins he put up numbers that impress even in the context of the high octane late 1990's. He slashed .314/.465/.624 for a league-leading 189 OPS+ with 42 home runs, 120 RBI's and an absurd 66:142 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
In three full seasons with the Dodgers he hit .312 with an average of 38 home runs, 103 RBI's, 99 walks and just 67 strikeouts per season. After two nearly identical seasons in Atlanta he became a free agent for this first time in his career in 2003.
Desperate for a right-handed masher, Brian Cashman forked over nearly $40 million for the 35-year old Sheffield. During his first two seasons in pinstripes he was worth every penny and was even the runner-up for AL MVP in 2004. Injuries and a hearty disagreement with management in 2006 forced his way to Detroit where his batting skills waned significantly. He finished out his career with the Mets as a 40-year old in 2009.
Gary Sheffield's career numbers with the bat scream Hall of Famer. He is part of the 500 home run club, had a .292 career batting average, and displayed amazing plate discipline - he walked more than he struck out in 16 of his 22 career seasons. His bat may have been a violent weapon, but he wielded it with the cold calculation of a mafia hitman. Advanced metrics back him up too, as his 561 career Batting Runs Above Average rank 29th all-time.
Even with those eye-popping numbers, Sheffield received only between 11% and 14% of the BBWAA vote between 2015 and 2019. This was mainly due to three things holding him back in the eyes of voters: (1) He switched positions mid-career from third base to right field, but by all accounts and measures was a very poor fielder at both positions, (2) Starting with his minor league career he had a sizable chip on his shoulder and would wear out his welcome as quickly and forcefully as his swing, (3) As a friend of Barry Bonds he was linked to steroid use as part of the BALCO scandal and was named in the 2007 Mitchell Report.
Despite the strikes against him, 2020 was a turning point in the voting for Gary Sheffield. He showed up on a little over 30% of the ballots that year and jumped to over 40% of the vote in 2021. He remained around 40% in 2022, but if the public ballots released thus far in 2023 are any indication, he should improve on that this year. There is still a sizable gap to close, though, and he has only two years of eligibility left. Enshrinement via the BBWAA will be an uphill battle for Sheff.
Alex Rodriguez - Shortstop, JAWS: 90.9, HoF JAWS: 55.4
Much like Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, the case for Alex Rodriguez as a Hall of Famer based strictly on his on-field performance is a layup. He was a three-time MVP who collected over 3,000 hits, scored 2,000 runs, drove in another 2,000 and smacked nearly 700 home runs. If that wasn't enough, he was also an excellent baserunner and played shortstop at a Gold Glove level. You could cut A-Rod in half and have two Hall of Famers if you'd like.
The similarities to Clemens don't stop there, though. When it comes to the Hall of Fame, Rodriguez's fate will entirely depend on how his complicated relationship with steroid use is dealt with by the voters. Clemens' ten-year journey on the ballot - and Barry Bonds' same journey for that matter - has shown us that there is no clear path to the Hall of Fame for a transcendent baseball player if steroids are a part of his story. When or if both Clemens and Bonds gain election, it won't be without much resistance from certain pockets of the baseball community. However, their history with steroids is a fairly straightforward one. They have always vehemently denied using steroids and have been willing to take it all the way to federal court where they've been miraculously successful.
That's where the case of Alex Rodriguez diverges. There simply has not been anything similar to the tragicomedy that A-Rod's long journey with steroids became. Despite his unique path as a steroid user in baseball, which we'll get to in a moment, the results for A-Rod in his debut on the ballot last year were nearly identical to the debuts of Clemens and Bonds. Will that continue?
Before taking a guess at Rodriguez's Hall of Fame fate, let's take a stab at making the complicated simple here. It's impossible to know exactly how and when he used steroids and other performance enhancers, but what we can do is track chronologically all of the public stories that involve A-Rod and drug use. Here goes:
2007
Shortly after the Mitchell Report was published, Rodriguez took part in an interview with Katie Couric on 60 Minutes where he denied ever using performance-enhancing drugs. Considering that his name wasn't included on the report, this was a curious choice for A-Rod. He went on to opine that if there was truth to the allegations that those named in the report were using steroids, it would be a black eye for the sport.
This interview was completely voluntary for Rodriguez. He could have stayed quiet on the whole steroid issue in baseball. As we'll see in the coming years he probably should have.
2008
In his second book detailing his rich history of steroid use, Jose Canseco claimed that he had introduced Rodriguez to a known supplier of steroids. A-Rod mostly stayed mum on this one, neither confirming nor denying the allegation. His silence on the topic was a little too late.
2009
Just prior to spring training a Sports Illustrated report revealed the names of some of the 104 players that tested positive for steroids as part of MLB's survey testing done in 2003. Alex Rodriguez was one of those names.
The survey testing was supposed to be anonymous and the names were revealed under shady circumstances. Furthermore, testing back then wasn't nearly as accurate as it would become. So false positives were within the realm of possibility. That was all beside the point for A-Rod though.
Soon after the names were leaked, Rodriguez tried his best to get ahead of it and took part in a damage control interview with ESPN's Peter Gammons. In it he was very specific in that he used steroids only from 2001 through 2003, the years he played for the Texas Rangers. He made the case that after signing the largest free agent contract in baseball history he felt pressure to perform, hence the need for something extra.
Of course, all this interview did was reveal that Rodriguez lied in the Couric interview, and therefore what he was saying in that moment also couldn't be trusted. Sure enough, a book published later in the year by Selena Roberts - one of the reporters who revealed the names for Sports Illustrated - accused A-Rod of steroid use going all the way back to his high school days. In his efforts to squash his own steroid story, he just kept digging himself further into the mess.
2010
About a year after the Sports Illustrated bombshell, a New York Times story linked Rodriguez to a Canadian doctor that was under investigation for providing performance-enhancing drugs to high profile athletes in the United States. This was a minor revelation that never stirred much controversy, but did basically confirm that A-Rod was likely lying during his Gammons interview as well.
2013
In January a Miami New Times story revealed that the local Biogenesis clinic was the source for performance-enhancing drugs for multiple players that had recently tested positive and were suspended by MLB. Some other high profile players were linked to the clinic as well, the biggest name being Alex Rodriguez.
While A-Rod had not tested positive for steroids since formal MLB testing began in 2005, the report went on to detail how he frequently purchased performance-enhancing drugs from Biogenesis between 2009 and 2012. By now, we know that Rodriguez's desperate need to try and draw attention back to himself in a positive way would prevent him from keeping his mouth shut in this situation.
As expected, Rodriguez doubled down and denied the allegations. When MLB launched an investigation into the situation, he dug in his heels and refused to cooperate, pointing fingers in every direction to deflect blame along the way. At the same time he also decided to start feuding with the Yankee front office over the status of his injured hip, because one controversy wasn't enough.
To be fair, as more details about the situation were released, it wasn't just A-Rod who looked bad. Anthony Bosch (the proprietor of Biogenesis), the MLB commissioner's office, the reporters investigating the story, and the Yankee front office were all complicit in the fiasco. Bribery, obtaining information illegally, lying, making baseless accusations, you name it, they were all doing it. Everyone involved should have been embarrassed.
Ultimately, MLB handed down a whopping 211-game suspension to Rodriguez, by far the longest drug-related suspension in league history. He immediately appealed, which allowed him to play out the rest of the 2013 season when he was finally healthy enough.
When the appeal process began in the off-season, Rodriguez was incensed by what he found to be unfair treatment. Hilariously, he even went so far as to leave an arbitration hearing early to head straight to WFAN studios for an impromptu interview with Mike Francesa. Despite putting on an Academy Award-worthy performance as the victim in this situation, A-Rod didn't win anybody over.
2014
Arbitration wrapped up in January and the verdict for Rodriguez was a 162-game suspension, meaning he would miss the entire 2014 season. He initially intended on taking the case to higher courts. Instead, he finally came to the realization that he should have come to six years earlier. A-Rod would accept his punishment, lay low, and spend his time, money, and effort on rehabilitating his image.
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