Yankees on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot - The Outfield
Recently, we reviewed the Hall of Fame cases of some former Yankees whose careers will always be intertwined with steroid use. There are four other former Yankees on the ballot - all outfielders - who managed to steer clear of the steroid conversation in baseball while they played. However, their candidacy will be hotly contested nonetheless.
First-timer Carlos Beltran has a Hall of Fame résumé that on the surface makes him an obvious candidate for election. Confounding his case is his prominent role in the Houston Astros cheating scandal that rocked the baseball world in 2019. Thus far, voters seem undecided on how to handle the situation.
Two veterans on the ballot - Bobby Abreu and Andruw Jones - find themselves in the middle of what will be a long stay on the ballot. One of them may get the writers' blessing for Cooperstown before his run is through, while the other certainly will not. We'll round out this group with Jacoby Ellsbury, a player who jumped to the Yankees from the Red Sox, but unfortunately took the opposite path of Babe Ruth.
For each player, their JAWS (Jaffe Average WAR Score, developed by Jay Jaffe) value is given along with the average Hall of Famer's JAWS at they player's position. JAWS is a Hall of Fame rating system based on WAR that incorporates both career and peak value. If you're interested in learning more about this, click here.
Carlos Beltran - Center Fielder, JAWS: 57.2, HoF JAWS: 58.1
Over the course of 20 years, Carlos Beltran put up some seriously impressive numbers. He scored over 1,500 runs and drove in another 1,500 with his more than 2,700 career hits. He drew over 1,000 walks, stroked over 550 doubles and went yard more than 400 times. If all that wasn't impressive enough, he also stole more than 300 bases. He's the only player in baseball history to surpass each of those thresholds and not be named Barry Bonds. Yet even with steering clear of any steroid whispers, Beltran was never really considered a slam dunk Hall of Fame candidate during his playing days.
Is it because Beltran doesn't hold up according to advanced metrics? Couldn't be. Those indicate that he was as complete a player as there's ever been in baseball. For his career he compiled 262 batting runs above average, 55 baserunning runs above average, and 39 fielding runs above average (for more detail on how those things are calculated, see my WAR primer). Only two players in major league history put up higher totals than Beltran in all three categories: Willie Mays and Rickey Henderson, two inner-circle Hall of Famers. So what was it about Beltran that made his obvious greatness not so obvious to those covering baseball when he played?
I'll start by mentioning Darrell Evans. What the hell does a third baseman from the 70's and 80's have to do with Carlos Beltran? I'm glad you asked. In his Historical Baseball Abstract - essential reading for any baseball fan - Bill James used Evans as a prime example of the ten things that make a baseball player underrated.
James goes into a fair amount of detail, but to summarize, those ten things are: 1) Specialists are overrated, players who do several things well are underrated; 2) Batting average is overrated, extra bases and walks are underrated; 3) Runs batted in are overrated, runs scored are underrated; 4) Players on championship teams get overrated, players on bad teams are underrated; 5) Players in New York/LA can be overrated, players in smaller cities can be underrated; 6) Talkative players tend to be overrated, quiet players tend to be underrated; 7) A player's home field can determine whether they're underrated or overrated; 8) The era in which a player played can determine whether they're underrated or overrated; 9) Undocumented skills (leadership, defense, heads-up play) tend to be forgotten over time; 10) A player who has a good career with one team will be thought of more highly than a player who does the same things, but with many teams.
By my count, eight of these points apply to Carlos Beltran: 1) He had no weaknesses in his game, but also no overwhelming strength; 2) His career batting average of .279 is pretty good, but not earth-shattering, he made up for that in many ways; 4) He didn't win a World Series until his final season in 2017 when he was 40, more on that season in a bit; 6) Media members never went to Beltran for a juicy quote; 7) His prime was spent mostly in Shea Stadium and Citi Field, both pitcher-friendly parks; 8) The steroid era was ending and offense in general was gradually declining as he was becoming a star player; 9) He was a well-respected and smart player who was pegged to be a manager right after his playing career...until bad things happened; 10) He played for seven different teams, and played well at every stop.
Add it all up, and Beltran might be one of the most underrated players in baseball history.
.jpg)
All under-ration aside, the real story for Beltran when it comes to the Hall of Fame is the Astros' sign-stealing scheme that he played a key role in during the 2017 season. It was reported in 2019 that during that championship season for the Astros, they had designed and successfully implemented a system using on-field cameras to steal catchers' signs and communicate them to the hitter via banging trash cans, or maybe even electronically in some cases. An official investigation was launched by MLB as a result of the report.
In January 2020, MLB announced its findings. Alex Cora, who was the bench coach of the Astros in 2017, was identified as having developed the scheme with a group of players early on in the season. However, only one player was identified by name and it was Carlos Beltran. As a 20-year veteran at that point, he was likely the most reliable player on the team when it came to recognizing a catchers' signs.
The punishment handed down by MLB was severe. A $5 million fine for the Astros, and they also lost the rights to their first and second round picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Manager A.J. Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow were suspended for the entire 2020 season, only to be fired hours later by Astros owner Jim Crane. Cora, who was managing the Red Sox by this time, would eventually serve a year-long suspension as well as part of another investigation that involved sign-stealing and his 2018 World Series champion Red Sox team.
Beltran received no explicit punishment for his role in the scheme. However, after being hired to be the new Mets manager in November 2019, he and the Mets announced just days after MLB's findings were published that they mutually agreed to part ways. He then made a public apology and expressed deep regret for his role in the scheme.
So what should we make of this unfortunate situation that has come to define Beltran in recent years? Let's start with the fact that in 2020 it was reported that the wheels were in motion for the Astros' scheme in 2016, a year before Beltran re-joined the team for his final season. Initially it seemed that he had co-masterminded it with Cora, but this confirms that he was merely a participant, if that matters to you.
Let's also consider sign-stealing and its role in baseball. Much like chewing tobacco, brushback pitches, and bench-clearing brawls, stealing signs has been an unsavory, but accepted part of baseball since the game was conceived. This article gives a nice rundown of sign-stealing history in the game. Stealing signs has even likely played a key role in some of the most memorable moments in baseball history, including The Shot Heard 'Round the World.
Does that mean that stealing signs is OK and we should just ignore it? Of course not. When a team makes it as obvious as the Astros did, punishments should be doled out to those involved, and then we can all move on with our baseball lives. In losing his managerial job before it started, I'd say Beltran served his punishment. Now we should move on and put him in the museum that celebrates baseball's greatest players, because he was certainly one of them when he played.
The BBWAA has made it clear thus far that they're not quite ready for that yet. Based on the ballots made public so far, Beltran's likely to wind up with somewhere between 40% and 50% of the vote in his debut this year. That's better than the Bonds/Clemens/A-Rod contingent fared in their first years on the ballot, but still a far cry from where he should be. If Beltran does get into the Hall of Fame the conventional way, it's going to be a while.
Bobby Abreu - Right Fielder, JAWS: 50.9, HoF JAWS: 56.7
For about a decade, Bobby Abreu was a metronome of baseball excellence. Every year he would hit .300 with 20 or 30 home runs, steal 20 or 30 bases, smack 40 doubles, score 100 runs, drive in 100 runs, and walk 100 times. Early in his career he was also a terrific fielder. Under normal circumstances this would make for a compelling Hall of Fame case.
However, Abreu was and still is rarely recognized as the great player he was during his career. This is almost solely attributable to his reserved nature that kept his demeanor low key no matter the situation on the baseball diamond. Fans and media members mistook his stoicism as a lack of passion or enthusiasm for baseball.
Truth is, nobody could be that productive for that long as a major leaguer while lacking passion for the game. From day one, Abreu took a sober, patient approach to hitting that made him an on-base machine but lacked the aggression that many around baseball crave. Productive as he was, he couldn't win over fans, especially in a city with a rabid fanbase like Philadelphia where he spent most of his career. This despite his heavy involvement in the local community, as evidenced by his Roberto Clemente Award in 2004.
It didn't help that the Phillies were a middling team that never made the playoffs during Abreu's tenure there. A 2006 trade to the Yankees meant that he would get to play meaningful October baseball. Although the Yankees lost the two playoff series that Abreu appeared in for New York, he hit well in both of them with an even .300 batting average. Despite his reputation, he could perform in high pressure situations.
As a member of the Yankees, Abreu's home run and walk totals dipped a bit even as a lefty in Yankee Stadium, but he still remained a quality bat in the middle of the lineup. After signing as a free agent with the Angels in 2009, his production steadily tapered off until he retired at 40 years old.
Based on merit alone, Abreu's career achievements should warrant serious consideration for Cooperstown. Unsurprisingly, the BBWAA voters have disagreed as he garnered less than 10% of the vote in each of his first three years on the ballot. Early indications show that he's on about 20% of the ballots made public thus far for 2023, so his situation could be improving. Still, it's seeming likely that he'll never get serious consideration from the Baseball Hall of Fame electorate. And that's a shame.
Andruw Jones - Center Fielder, JAWS: 54.6, HoF JAWS: 58.1
The Hall of Fame case for Andruw Jones may have been doomed before it even started. As a young player he often drew comparisons to fellow center fielder Willie Mays, which ensured that no matter what he did he would fall short of expectations. What he did though, was pretty damn impressive.
Any conversation about Jones should always start with his supreme fielding ability. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds he had astonishing range for a big man with an arm that could gun down runners from anywhere in the outfield. Per Baseball Reference's Runs from Fielding metric, he is by far the greatest player to patrol the outfield in baseball history, and fifth all-time at any position. This would appear to be no fluke as he earned 10 straight Gold Gloves from 1998 through 2007 in support of some all-time great pitching staffs for the Atlanta Braves.
Jones still had his detractors. Some felt he played a lazy center field and could actually have been better. After all, he was not an effective fielder after age 30 and was banished strictly to corner outfield spots for the last four years of his career. However, it wasn't his fault that he made it look easy, and as a bigger than average center fielder who started his career at just 19 years old, his body simply broke down in his 30's. Jones was truly one of the great ones in his day.
When it came to hitting, Jones was no slouch. With power uncharacteristic of a center fielder, he maintained a very productive bat for an extended period. From age 21 through 29 his average season included a .270/.347/.513 slash line, a 118 OPS+, 35 home runs, 104 RBI's, and 99 runs scored. This included a major league-leading 51 home runs in 2005. For his career he hit over 400 home runs and both scored and drove in over 1,200 runs. That puts him in rare company among center fielders all-time.
For the last five years of his career, Jones was nothing more than a power bat off the bench. This included a successful season as a reserve for the Yankees in 2011 where he put up an OPS+ of 126. Still, it was a far cry from the player he had been, and five years is a long time for writers to see a once great player deteriorate into a lesser one. After a dismal 2012 season with the Yankees he would never play in the major leagues again.
Thanks to the perceived laziness and long, slow, painful decline to end his career - a 2012 domestic violence incident couldn't have helped things either - Jones got very little support in his first two years on the Hall of Fame ballot. Yet over the last three years a less crowded ballot seems to have significantly helped him in the polls. He secured nearly 20% of the vote in 2019 after a previous high of 7.5% and improved to over 40% last year. On public ballots reported so far, he's approaching a 70% share in 2023. There's a long way to go, but with four years of eligibility left, we may see one of the greatest fielders ever enshrined in Cooperstown before long.
Jacoby Ellsbury - Center Fielder, JAWS: 29.6, HoF JAWS: 58.1
From Babe Ruth to Red Ruffing to Sparky Lyle to Wade Boggs to Roger Clemens to Johnny Damon, there's a long history of players that spent significant time with the Red Sox only to find great success with the Yankees afterwards. In 2013 the Yankees were licking their wounds from a third place finish in the AL East and thought they found the next in line with Jacoby Ellsbury. They made him the tenth-highest paid player in baseball with a seven year, $153 million contract in the hopes that he would bring the Yankees back to supremacy. Things didn't exactly work out that way.
Ellsbury spent seven years in Boston and established some fundamental truths about himself as a player. He was a great fielder, an elite baserunner, he was injury prone, and with the exception of one glorious season in 2011, his bat was average at best. But Ellsbury in 2011 was really something else. He hit 32 home runs, scored 119 runs, drove in another 105, and posted a 146 OPS+ thanks to his .321/.376/.552 slash line. Each of those numbers were career highs by a wide margin. With his superb glove and work on the basepaths he led the AL in WAR and probably should have been MVP (Justin Verlander took that prize).
The thinking in the Bronx must have been that putting Ellsbury's lefty bat in Yankee Stadium for 80 or so games per year would unleash that version of him again. Unfortunately, the other six years that he spent with the Red Sox proved that both the health and offensive explosion he enjoyed in 2011 were anomalies and not a precursor of things to come.
.jpg)
Ellsbury's debut season with the Yankees in 2014 would best be described as "good enough." He stayed relatively healthy, held down center field, hit a respectable 16 home runs, and stole a bunch of bases. However, his play didn't improve the Yankees' situation as they won just 84 games and missed the playoffs for a second straight year. That was as good as it would get for Ellsbury in pinstripes.
In 2015 a knee injury landed Ellsbury on the injured list in May. When he returned two months later, he was so ineffective that when the Yankees snuck into the playoffs to play in the AL Wild Card Game he was benched in favor of journeyman Chris Young. He managed to stay off the injured list in 2016, but at the same time established that his underwhelming second half a season prior was his new baseline. In 2017 injuries piled up for him again and when he was healthy enough to play, he lost his starting job to Aaron Hicks. Nobody complained.
While Ellsbury remained on the Yankees' payroll for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he was never on the active roster. He wouldn't play another game in the major leagues after 2017. In the Yankee history books he's nothing more than a cautionary tale; an example that people can point to as a reason to not invest in an injury prone player. The only real interesting, or at least positive thing about Ellsbury's time in New York was his extraordinary ability to reach base via catcher interference. He did it 12 times in 2016, which is the single-season major league record and his career mark of 31 is also an all-time record. So he has that going for him.
Jacoby Ellsbury won't receive a single vote from the baseball writers this year, and that's OK. He'll always have 2011.
All numbers used in this article were obtained from Baseball Reference.
Comments
Post a Comment