Yankees on the 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot - The A-Team
Our Hall of Fame coverage here at Jimmy Sez continues with our first look at the recently released BBWAA ballot for 2024. The list includes eight former Yankees, and most of them have garnered enough support from the electorate to settle in for a nice, long stay on the ballot.
That's certainly the case with the first four candidates we'll dig in to, who were put into a group simply because their first or last initial allows me to reference an 80's TV show in the title of this post. Only one player from this group has an outside chance to gain election this year, but it wouldn't be surprising to see all of them in the Hall of Fame eventually. Even if it's through the back door via a Veterans Committee vote further down the road.
For each player, their JAWS (Jaffe Average WAR Score, developed by Jay Jaffe) value is given along with the average Hall of Famer's JAWS at the player's position. JAWS is a Hall of Fame rating system based on WAR that incorporates both career and peak value. If you're interested in learning more about this, click here.
Alex Rodriguez - Shortstop, JAWS: 90.9, HoF JAWS: 55.4
Much like Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, the case for Alex Rodriguez as a Hall of Famer based strictly on his on-field performance is a layup. He was a three-time MVP who collected over 3,000 hits, scored 2,000 runs, drove in another 2,000 and smacked nearly 700 home runs. If that wasn't enough, he was also an excellent baserunner and played shortstop at a Gold Glove level. You could cut A-Rod in half and have two Hall of Famers if you'd like.
The similarities to Clemens and Bonds don't stop there, though. When it comes to the Hall of Fame, Rodriguez's fate will entirely depend on how his complicated relationship with steroid use is dealt with by the voters. The ten-year journey for Clemens and Bonds on the ballot has shown us that there is no clear path to the Hall of Fame for a transcendent baseball player if steroids are a part of his story. When or if they both gain election, it won't be without much resistance from certain pockets of the baseball community. However, their history with steroids is a fairly straightforward one. They have always vehemently denied using steroids and have been willing to take it all the way to federal court where they've been miraculously successful.
That's where the case of Alex Rodriguez diverges. There simply has not been anything similar to the tragicomedy that A-Rod's adventure with steroids became. Despite his unique path as a steroid user in baseball, which we'll get to in a moment, the results for A-Rod in his first two years on the ballot were very similar to those of Clemens and Bonds. Will that continue?
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Before taking a guess at Rodriguez's Hall of Fame fate, let's take a stab at making the complicated simple here. It's impossible to know exactly how and when he used steroids and other performance enhancers, but what we can do is track chronologically all of the public stories that involve A-Rod and drug use. Here goes:
2007
Shortly after the Mitchell Report was published, Rodriguez took part in an interview with Katie Couric on 60 Minutes where he denied ever using performance-enhancing drugs. Considering that his name wasn't included on the report, this was a curious choice for A-Rod. He went on to opine that if there was truth to the allegations that those named in the report were using steroids, it would be a black eye for the sport.
This interview was completely voluntary for Rodriguez. He could have stayed quiet on the whole steroid issue in baseball. As we'll see in the coming years he probably should have.
2008
In his second book detailing his rich history of steroid use, Jose Canseco claimed that he had introduced Rodriguez to a known supplier of steroids. A-Rod mostly stayed mum on this one, neither confirming nor denying the allegation. His silence on the topic was a little too late.
2009
Just prior to spring training a Sports Illustrated report revealed the names of some of the 104 players that tested positive for steroids as part of MLB's survey testing done in 2003. Alex Rodriguez was one of those names.
The survey testing was supposed to be anonymous and the names were revealed under shady circumstances. Furthermore, testing back then wasn't nearly as accurate as it would become. So false positives were within the realm of possibility. That was all beside the point for A-Rod though.
Soon after the names were leaked, Rodriguez tried his best to get ahead of it and took part in a damage control interview with ESPN's Peter Gammons. In it he was very specific in that he used steroids only from 2001 through 2003, the years he played for the Texas Rangers. He made the case that after signing the largest free agent contract in baseball history he felt pressure to perform, hence the need for something extra.
Of course, all this interview did was reveal that Rodriguez lied in the Couric interview, and therefore what he was saying in that moment also couldn't be trusted. Sure enough, a book published later in the year by Selena Roberts - one of the reporters who revealed the names for Sports Illustrated - accused A-Rod of steroid use going all the way back to his high school days. In his efforts to squash his own steroid story, he just kept digging himself further into the mess.
2010
About a year after the Sports Illustrated bombshell, a New York Times story linked Rodriguez to a Canadian doctor that was under investigation for providing performance-enhancing drugs to high profile athletes in the United States. This was a minor revelation that never stirred much controversy, but did basically confirm that A-Rod was likely lying during his Gammons interview as well.
2013
In January a Miami New Times story revealed that the local Biogenesis clinic was the source for performance-enhancing drugs for multiple players that had recently tested positive and were suspended by MLB. Some other high profile players were linked to the clinic as well, the biggest name being Alex Rodriguez.
While A-Rod had not tested positive for steroids since formal MLB testing began in 2005, the report went on to detail how he frequently purchased performance-enhancing drugs from Biogenesis between 2009 and 2012. By now, we know that Rodriguez's desperate need to try and draw attention back to himself in a positive way would prevent him from keeping his mouth shut in this situation.
As expected, Rodriguez doubled down and denied the allegations. When MLB launched an investigation into the situation, he dug in his heels and refused to cooperate, pointing fingers in every direction to deflect blame along the way. At the same time he also decided to start feuding with the Yankee front office over the status of his injured hip, because one controversy wasn't enough.
To be fair, as more details about the situation were released, it wasn't just A-Rod who looked bad. Anthony Bosch (the proprietor of Biogenesis), the MLB commissioner's office, the reporters investigating the story, and the Yankee front office were all complicit in the fiasco. Bribery, obtaining information illegally, lying, making baseless accusations, you name it, they were all doing it. Everyone involved should have been embarrassed.
Ultimately, MLB handed down a whopping 211-game suspension to Rodriguez, by far the longest drug-related suspension in league history. He immediately appealed, which allowed him to play out the rest of the 2013 season when he was finally healthy enough.
When the appeal process began in the off-season, Rodriguez was incensed by what he found to be unfair treatment. Hilariously, he even went so far as to leave an arbitration hearing early to head straight to WFAN studios for an impromptu interview with Mike Francesa. Despite putting on an Academy Award-worthy performance as the victim in this situation, A-Rod didn't win anybody over.
2014
Arbitration wrapped up in January and the verdict for Rodriguez was a 162-game suspension, meaning he would miss the entire 2014 season. He initially intended on taking the case to higher courts. Instead, he finally came to the realization that he should have come to six years earlier. A-Rod would accept his punishment, lay low, and spend his time, money, and effort on rehabilitating his image.
Fallout
When Rodriguez returned to baseball in 2015, he understandably was showered with loud boos wherever he went. But his time off helped him significantly both on the field and off. As he enjoyed a renaissance season with the bat, he used his time on the road as an apology tour of sorts. In moments where he would previously assign blame to the those around him for his transgressions, he now took ownership of what he had done in the past. He was finally honest and sincerely apologetic about his role in the circus his career had become.
In a babyface turn that would make even Rowdy Roddy Piper jealous, Rodriguez incomprehensibly turned those boos into cheers by season's end. He's even managed to convince MLB to allow him to have an ever increasing role in covering nationally televised baseball games as a commentator. That's all good and well, but what do Hall of Fame voters think?
On one hand, no player has ever had anything near the documented history of steroid use that A-Rod had in his career. On the other hand, he never actually tested positive for steroid use when formal testing was instituted. Back to the first hand, it took many years of getting caught in a web of lies for Rodriguez to finally fess up and apologize for real when it came to steroid use. Switching hands again, no high profile player accused of using steroids has ever spent an entire baseball season apologizing to the baseball community and owning his mistakes.
Thus far, voters are beginning to give us a clear understanding on where they stand on the A-Rod Hall of Fame issue. We can best expect a modest increase on the 35.7% of the vote he collected last year. Clemens and Bonds rode similar modest increases all the way up to 65% of the vote in their tenth year on the ballot, which was still well short of election. Despite A-Rod's (eventual) steroid admission and the fact that he's still front and center in the baseball conversation thanks to his job as an ESPN analyst, his Cooperstown fate doesn't seem any different than the high-profile steroid users before him. Then again, A-Rod's shocked us all before.
As a third baseman in The New York Yankees All-Time All-Stars, a full profile on Alex Rodriguez can be found there.
Andruw Jones - Center Fielder, JAWS: 54.6, HoF JAWS: 58.1
The Hall of Fame case for Andruw Jones may have been doomed before it even started. As a young player he often drew comparisons to fellow center fielder Willie Mays, which ensured that no matter what he did he would fall short of expectations. What he did though, was pretty damn impressive.
Any conversation about Jones should always start with his supreme fielding ability. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds he had astonishing range for a big man with an arm that could gun down runners from anywhere in the outfield. Per Baseball Reference's Runs from Fielding metric, he is by far the greatest player to patrol the outfield in baseball history, and fifth all-time at any position. This would appear to be no fluke as he earned 10 straight Gold Gloves from 1998 through 2007 in support of some all-time great pitching staffs for the Atlanta Braves.
Jones still had his detractors. Some felt he played a lazy center field and could actually have been better. After all, he was not an effective fielder after age 30 and was banished strictly to corner outfield spots for the last four years of his career. However, it wasn't his fault that he made it look easy, and as a bigger than average center fielder who started his career at just 19 years old, his body simply broke down in his 30's. Jones was truly one of the great ones in his day.
When it came to hitting, Jones was no slouch. With power uncharacteristic of a center fielder, he maintained a very productive bat for an extended period. From age 21 through 29 his average season included a .270/.347/.513 slash line, a 118 OPS+, 35 home runs, 104 RBI's, and 99 runs scored. This included a major league-leading 51 home runs in 2005. For his career he hit over 400 home runs and both scored and drove in over 1,200 runs. That puts him in rare company among center fielders all-time.
For the last five years of his career, Jones was nothing more than a power bat off the bench. This included a successful season as a reserve for the Yankees in 2011 where he put up an OPS+ of 126. Still, it was a far cry from the player he had been, and five years is a long time for writers to see a once great player deteriorate into a lesser one. After a dismal 2012 season with the Yankees he would never play in the major leagues again.
Thanks to the perceived laziness and long, slow, painful decline to end his career - a 2012 domestic violence incident couldn't have helped things either - Jones got very little support in his first two years on the Hall of Fame ballot. Yet since then a less crowded ballot seems to have significantly helped him in the polls. He secured nearly 20% of the vote in 2019 after a previous high of 7.5% and improved to over 40% in 2022. Last year he made a quantum leap to 58.1% of the vote. Expecting another 17% jump to gain election this year would be a fool's errand, but crossing the 50% threshold all but ensures that we'll see one of the greatest fielders ever enshrined in Cooperstown before long.
Bobby Abreu - Right Fielder, JAWS: 50.9, HoF JAWS: 56.7
For about a decade, Bobby Abreu was a metronome of baseball excellence. Every year he would hit .300 with 20 or 30 home runs, steal 20 or 30 bases, smack 40 doubles, score 100 runs, drive in 100 runs, and walk 100 times. Early in his career he was also a terrific fielder. Under normal circumstances this would make for a compelling Hall of Fame case.
However, Abreu was and still is rarely recognized as the great player he was during his career. This is almost solely attributable to his reserved nature that kept his demeanor low key no matter the situation on the baseball diamond. Fans and media members mistook his stoicism as a lack of passion or enthusiasm for baseball.
Truth is, nobody could be that productive for that long as a major leaguer while lacking passion for the game. From day one, Abreu took a sober, patient approach to hitting that made him an on-base machine but lacked the aggression that many around baseball crave. Productive as he was, he couldn't win over fans, especially in a city with a rabid fanbase like Philadelphia where he spent most of his career. This despite his heavy involvement in the local community, as evidenced by his Roberto Clemente Award in 2004.
It didn't help that the Phillies were a middling team that never made the playoffs during Abreu's tenure there. A 2006 trade to the Yankees meant that he would get to play meaningful October baseball. Although the Yankees lost the two playoff series that Abreu appeared in for New York, he hit well in both of them with an even .300 batting average. Despite his reputation, he could perform in high pressure situations.
As a member of the Yankees Abreu's home run and walk totals dipped a bit even as a lefty in Yankee Stadium, but he still remained a quality bat in the middle of the lineup. After signing as a free agent with the Angels in 2009, his production steadily tapered off until he retired at 40 years old.
Based on merit alone, Abreu's career achievements should warrant serious consideration for Cooperstown. Unsurprisingly, the BBWAA voters have disagreed as he garnered less than 10% of the vote in each of his first three years on the ballot. His situation improved a bit in the 2023 vote where he was chosen by a little over 15% of voters. Still, it's seeming likely that he'll never get serious consideration from the Baseball Hall of Fame electorate. And that's a shame.
Andy Pettitte - Starting Pitcher, JAWS: 47.2, HoF JAWS: 61.4
No pitcher in Yankee history has started more games than Andy Pettitte. He and Whitey Ford both have 438 career starts in pinstripes, which is poetic in a way. They were both tough as nails lefties with confidence that far exceeded their talent and for that reason were especially lethal in October.
When it comes to his Hall of Fame case, Pettitte's achievements in the regular season come tantalizingly close to the Hall of Fame standard. He fell short of 300 wins, but his 256 career victories are more than Hall of Famers Jack Morris, Carl Hubbell, and Bob Gibson. He never earned a Cy Young Award, but he finished within the top six of the voting five times. His arm wasn't overpowering, but he rode an effective cut fastball to a career ERA that was 17% above average. If you squint hard enough, he could be worthy of enshrinement.
Where Pettitte's case really comes into focus, though, is his playoff record. From his sophomore season in 1996 all the way through to the end of his career, he was the man the Yankees looked to when they absolutely needed a win come October. No pitcher in major league history has started more playoff games, pitched more playoff innings, or won more playoff games than Pettitte.
As a 37-year old in 2009 Pettitte cemented his legacy as a great big game pitcher. That year he became the first ever starting pitcher to win the series-clinching game in the Division, League Championship and World Series in the same year. Those three victories gave him six playoff series-clinching wins for his career, also an all-time record. This adds some serious heft to his credentials, and under normal circumstances would probably push him over the bar for most voters. But for Pettitte, there's a catch.
Like his good friend and teammate Roger Clemens, Pettitte was named in the Mitchell Report as having used HGH (human growth hormone) multiple times illegally in 2002. The source of the information was Brian McNamee - Clemens' trainer - and Pettitte readily admitted to using HGH twice in order to expedite his recovery from an elbow injury while denying any further use. This was a far cry from Clemens' take on the matter.
A few months after the Mitchell Report was released, it was revealed that during a court hearing that went public Pettitte had also admitted to further HGH use in 2004 when his father was prescribed it for a serious illness. He also described Clemens as detailing his steroid use to him in the late 1990's, just as McNamee had done in the Mitchell Report.
It would have been nice if Pettitte had revealed this additional use during his first admission of guilt for the 2002 evidence. The fact that he didn't made it reasonable to question anything he was saying as fact, but when he reported to spring training in 2008, he came clean on everything and offered heartfelt apologies to his teammates, fans and family.
It was refreshing that Pettitte eventually was honest and forthcoming about his transgressions. It wasn't a popular tactic among those found guilty of steroid use at the time and cost him his friendship with Clemens. Still, he hasn't scored any points with the BBWAA as a result. In his debut on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2019 he received only about 10% of the vote and has seen only modest increases in his share since then. In this his sixth year on the ballot, it seems he'll garner around 20% of the vote, still a far cry from the 75% needed for election. If HGH use was not a part of his past, those numbers certainly would have been higher.
What seems likely for Pettitte is that he'll remain in Hall of Fame purgatory at the hands of the BBWAA. That means a ten-year stay on the ballot where he won't get particularly close to a plaque in Cooperstown. By the end of that run, however, the stance on steroid use in baseball may have softened quite a bit. If so, it wouldn't be surprising to see a veterans committee elect Pettitte somewhere down the line. Given his contrite apologies regarding his HGH use, he'd be far from the worst character in baseball to be enshrined.
As a starting pitcher in The New York Yankees All-Time All-Stars, a full profile on Andy Pettitte can be found there.
All numbers used in this article were obtained from Baseball Reference.
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