The 2024 Baby Bombers: A New Hope for the Empire

Yankee baseball that counts is almost here, and it can't come soon enough. For every feel good story we had this spring - like Giancarlo Stanton's resurgent form - there's been a mysterious elbow injury for Gerrit Cole or another foot injury for DJ LeMahieu or a bum shoulder for Oswald Peraza. Just start the season already...

But before we do, let's see what's happening down on the farm in Yankeeland. Last month Keith Law released his annual Top 100 MLB Prospect List as well as his system rankings across the league. In recent years the Yankees have been slowly climbing up Law's rankings, coming in at #14 in 2023, but after a blockbuster trade for Juan Soto is the cupboard bare? All that and more will be answered below as we take a Sergio Leone-style dive into Law's treasure trove of information.

The Good

The Yankees' system is in the top ten of the major leagues! Despite last year's top prospect Anthony Volpe graduating to the majors and unloading top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe as part of the Soto deal, the Yankees still have the seventh best farm system in baseball according to Law.

The headliner of the current crop of Baby Bombers is already a household name among Yankee fans thanks to a whirlwind ten days or so spent in the big leagues in 2023. Jasson Dominguez pulverized Double-A pitching for most of the summer last year and fared even better during a brief stint at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. That earned him a call-up to the Bronx on September 1st where he made quite a first impression. In eight games he bashed four home runs and looked very much like the centerfielder of the future in New York.

Then the bottom fell out for The Martian. Discomfort in his elbow turned out to be a torn UCL and therefore Tommy John surgery in his throwing arm. He'll remain sidelined for at least the first few months of 2024, but the sky seems the limit for the young slugger.

The Yankees are hoping that Jasson Dominguez can be their next homegrown superstar.

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Law has always been high on Dominguez's chances as a future star. For him, the question has always been whether he can improve on his pitch recognition and plate discipline. At just 20 years old in 2023, he showed enough improvement in that area to convince Law that his star is still bright. Even with the unfortunate injury, he came in at number 21 in the top 100 this year.

Another familiar face in the top 100, Everson Pereira, also made his major league debut last year, but to far less fanfare than Dominguez. Pereira struggled quite a bit in his limited big league action last year, yet Law in not concerned about his long-term potential as an All-Star. In fact, Law thinks the best thing that could have happened for the 23-year old is the Soto trade which will ensure that he can continue to develop and improve his plate approach. He comes in at 63 in the top 100, up 23 spots from last year.

Arguably the most popular Yankee prospect, Spencer Jones, just missed Law's top 100, instead being profiled in his ten who just missed list. Jones' appeal is obvious, Yankee fans take one look at the 6-foot-6 slugger and immediately envision a left-handed Aaron Judge. Law's much more cautious about making that comparison because (1) guys his size rarely turn out to be elite players, and (2) his alarming strike out rate has shown no signs of improvement. Still, you don't give up on guys who has 40-home run potential.

The last Yankee sneaking into the top 100 is shortstop Roderick Arias who comes in at number 98. At just 18 years old in 2023, Arias proved to already be a well-rounded player with the highest potential of anyone in the system aside from Dominguez. He shined brightest on what Law called a "stacked" Low-A Tampa team in 2023 that advanced to the league finals.

It's the talent concentrated on that team that compelled Law to rank the Yankee system so high. He envisions another five players from the FCL Yankees potentially cracking the top 100 next year. It may be a while, but if even one or two from this group develops into a major league star, it may finally instill some faith that the current Yankee regime can develop young talent into quality big leaguers.

The Bad

Being a top ten farm system doesn't make the Yankees special in a talent-rich AL East. The five-team division includes three top ten systems, and the Rays are not too far behind coming in at twelfth. Given the recent history of the Yankees not being able to turn prospects into pro players, the pressure is on to keep pace with their rivals.

Team	Farm System Rank	Prospects in Top 100
Baltimore Orioles	1	5 (including #1 prospect)
New York Yankees	7	3 (none in top 20)
Boston Red Sox	8	5 (including #8 prospect)
Tampa Bay Rays	12	4 (including #5 prospect)
Toronto Blue Jays	20	3 (1 pitcher)

Anybody paying attention to the Baltimore Orioles's system over the last few years was probably not surprised at the meteoric improvement of the big league team last year. Law ranked their prospects at number ten in 2022, three in 2023 and the best in baseball this year. Catcher Adley Rutschman was Law's number one prospect in 2022 and is now a major league All-Star. Third baseman Gunnar Henderson was Law's number two prospect last year and he was named the AL Rookie of the Year. In 2024 the Orioles again boast the top prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday (yes, Matt's son).

After securing 101 wins and a division crown in 2023, things are only looking up for Baltimore as they have an embarrassment of riches beyond just Holliday. They have the option of dipping into their system for reinforcements whenever needed, or trading some of those chips for a ready-made star if the situation presents itself. We are likely on the brink of another golden age of baseball in Baltimore, and that's not good news for the Yankees.

Jackson Holliday is one of many young Orioles that could make life very difficult for the Yankees in the near future.

Bryan Green/Wikimedia Commons

Speaking of not so good news, the Red Sox somehow have the eighth best system in baseball just a year after being ranked 23rd. Boston likely won't contend at the major league level yet in 2024, but their prospect pool has a higher upside than the Yankees' at the moment. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is now a top ten prospect after being the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft and there are five Boston prospects in Law's top 100, two more than the Yankees. If this Red Sox regime ever gets back to spending money again, they could be back in the AL East mix sooner than later.

The Rays crop of youngsters may be thinning out, but a big reason for that is their propensity to promote from within rather than spend any real money in free agency. Two things about Tampa Bay still make them scary as hell: (1) Junior Caminero - Law's number five prospect - got a taste of the major leagues at just 20 years old in 2023 and already proved that he can do some damage, and (2) never underestimate the Rays' ability to churn out quality, under-the-radar players who will beat you with some combination of smoke, mirrors, and voodoo.

The Blue Jays round out the division with an underwhelming stable of prospects, but they do have one thing that no other AL East team has: a top 100 pitching prospect. It's a good thing the Yankees' farm system continues to improve, because they will need all the help they can get to keep up in what's looking to be a stacked division for years to come.

The Ugly

We here at Jimmy Sez preach a lot about the Yankees' inability to develop quality major leaguers, but it's especially true for ptichers (see last year's prospect review for some more background). Based on Law's Yankee-specific top 20 list, it's evident that the pitching situation within the farm system has not improved at all.

In 2023, nine of the Yankees top 20 prospects were pitchers and they're down to just eight this year. Their top ranked pitching prospect last year - Luis Serna - didn't even make Law's list this year thanks to an injury-plagued 2023 season. With Drew Thorpe now in San Diego, what's left of the top arms in the system doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Chase Hampton, the Yankees' sixth round pick in 2022, now takes the crown as their top pitching prospect. He had some success in Hudson Valley last year but looked closer to average after being promoted to Double-A Somerset. He's got a diverse repertoire that features a live fastball and a variety of breaking balls, but is struggling to find an offspeed pitch that works. Law sums him up by saying, "He looks like a back-end starter if he can hold up." Strap in, Yankee fans, the next Scott Kamieniecki has finally arrived!

Of the remaining arms that Law profiled, they all have some upside potential, but he also calls out a glaring weakness for each of them with one exception. Bronx native Henry Lalane - a towering 20-year old lefty - seems to be a diamond in the rough. Law offered up a glowing review of his fastball/slider combo and didn't report a single negative word about his debut in Tampa last year. Given Lalane's age and inexperience, he concluded with, "It's a long-term play with mid-rotation potential and even higher upside." It would be nice to see Lalane become the first Yankee prospect in decades to become a top-of-the-rotation starter.

When the Yankees get their hands on a super-talented pitcher like Joba Chamberlain, we can be sure of one thing: they'll muck it all up.

jimmyack205/Wikimedia Commons

But let's face it, the Yankees have had lots of talented arms in the organization since the turn of the century, but none of them were able to anchor the big league rotation for an extended period of time. Until they convert a talented young pitcher into an ace, we'll have to assume that all of these arms will go to waste.